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Every day, billions of dollars flow through markets that trade not assets, but events.
From elections and policy decisions to tech breakthroughs and global crises, prediction markets are transforming the way we understand probability, sentiment, and truth.

Warsh Makes September Live | Goods Deficit Widens | Sports Markets Lose in Court | The Fed That Stopped Guiding

Aug 28, 2026

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4 min read

Warsh Makes September Live | Goods Deficit Widens | Sports Markets Lose in Court | The Fed That Stopped Guiding

The 10-year rose to 4.73%. September hike odds moved to 50%. The goods deficit hit $118.8 billion. Sports contracts took a Ninth Circuit loss.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Goods Deficit Widens to $118.8 Billion | Capital Goods Imports Jump 11% | Domestic Equipment Orders Add 0.2% | The Buildout Lands as an Import

Aug 28, 2026

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5 min read

The Goods Deficit Widens to $118.8 Billion | Capital Goods Imports Jump 11% | Domestic Equipment Orders Add 0.2% | The Buildout Lands as an Import

Imports of goods reached $318.2 billion in July while exports fell. Capital goods are now over two fifths of the whole import bill.

Bo Nichols, +1

Nvidia Restores the Bid | Warsh Gets the Next Word | States Hit Prediction Markets | The Rally That Still Needs Permission

Aug 27, 2026

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4 min read

Nvidia Restores the Bid | Warsh Gets the Next Word | States Hit Prediction Markets | The Rally That Still Needs Permission

Nasdaq rose 1.57% after Nvidia beat. Oil rose to $83.66. September hold odds rose to 69%. Warsh speaks Friday.

Bo Nichols, +1

$96.2 Billion in One Quarter | Data Center Revenue More Than Doubles | The Margin Guide Comes Down a Point | The Input Price Nvidia Does Not Set

Aug 27, 2026

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4 min read

$96.2 Billion in One Quarter | Data Center Revenue More Than Doubles | The Margin Guide Comes Down a Point | The Input Price Nvidia Does Not Set

Revenue rose 106% and the next guide reached $108 billion. Gross margin is guided to 74%. The two-year gave back seven basis points.

Bo Nichols, +1

Core PCE Holds at 3.3% | Nvidia Gets the Last Word | The Ten-Year Backs Up | The Print That Did Not Free the Fed

Aug 26, 2026

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4 min read

Core PCE Holds at 3.3% | Nvidia Gets the Last Word | The Ten-Year Backs Up | The Print That Did Not Free the Fed

Headline PCE rose 3.7%. Core held at 3.3%. Stocks barely moved before Nvidia. September hold odds stayed near two thirds.

Bo Nichols, +1

Consumer Expectations Fall to 68.2 | The Present Reading Jumps to 121.2 | Factories Raise Their Six-Month Plans | None of Today's Three Releases Reaches August

Aug 26, 2026

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4 min read

Consumer Expectations Fall to 68.2 | The Present Reading Jumps to 121.2 | Factories Raise Their Six-Month Plans | None of Today's Three Releases Reaches August

The present-situation index rose 6.8 points. The expectations index fell 5.8 points. Philadelphia's factories raised their six-month readings. Three releases land at 8:30 ET.

Bo Nichols, +1