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PPI Runs Hot, Markets Pause | Oil Holds the Floor | The Cut Path Stalls | The Tie That Didn’t Break

Mar 19, 2026

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8 min read

PPI Runs Hot, Markets Pause | Oil Holds the Floor | The Cut Path Stalls | The Tie That Didn’t Break

Upstream inflation was already running before oil surged. Energy held the floor as equities paused. The Fed left the cut path unresolved, and markets are still waiting for a tie-breaker.

Bo Nichols, +1

PPI Doubles Consensus | Powell Fractures the Dot Plot | The Cut That’s Now a Coin Toss

Mar 19, 2026

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9 min read

PPI Doubles Consensus | Powell Fractures the Dot Plot | The Cut That’s Now a Coin Toss

Wholesale inflation was already running before the oil shock hit. Seven Fed members see zero cuts. The ECB holds while markets price two hikes.

Bo Nichols, +1

Fed Holds, Markets Reverse | Oil Stays Firm | Bypass Fades | The Constraint That Didn’t Move

Mar 18, 2026

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8 min read

Fed Holds, Markets Reverse | Oil Stays Firm | Bypass Fades | The Constraint That Didn’t Move

The Iraq pipeline gave markets early relief. The Fed took it away. Oil held near $100. The workaround moved price. The system stayed tight.

Bo Nichols, +1

Iraq Opens a Bypass | Oil Pulls Back | Fed Dot Plot Arrives | The Relief That Doesn't Reach Powell

Mar 18, 2026

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9 min read

Iraq Opens a Bypass | Oil Pulls Back | Fed Dot Plot Arrives | The Relief That Doesn't Reach Powell

Iraq and Kurdistan reopened a dormant pipeline overnight. Oil eased from above $103. The Fed walks into 2 PM with a stagflation-lite setup and no equivalent workaround. One system found a pressure valve this morning. The other has to publish its constraints.

Bo Nichols, +1

Energy Infrastructure Hit | Oil Rebounds | Fed Enters Stagflation Window | The Assumption Breaking Underneath

Mar 17, 2026

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8 min read

Energy Infrastructure Hit | Oil Rebounds | Fed Enters Stagflation Window | The Assumption Breaking Underneath

Iran struck Gulf energy assets overnight. Oil reversed higher. The Fed meets as inflation risk rises and growth slows. Markets are still pricing a version of restraint that is starting to crack.

Bo Nichols, +1

Iran Hits UAE Gas Field | FOMC Convenes | Monday's Rally Reverses | The Infrastructure Markets Said Was Safe

Mar 17, 2026

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10 min read

Iran Hits UAE Gas Field | FOMC Convenes | Monday's Rally Reverses | The Infrastructure Markets Said Was Safe

Brent climbed back above $104 as Iran struck a UAE gas field overnight. The Fed opens today into a picture that changed while markets slept.

Bo Nichols, +1