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Trump Decouples the Peace | Oil Holds Above $102 | Fed Locked | The Strait That Outlives the War

Mar 31, 2026

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9 min read

Trump Decouples the Peace | Oil Holds Above $102 | Fed Locked | The Strait That Outlives the War

WTI opened above $102. Futures rallied on the WSJ report. Hormuz traffic normal by end of April sits at 18%. The physical market isn't pricing the same exit paper wanted.

Bo Nichols, +1

Paper Lost the Narrative | Oil Pressed Higher | Cuts Keep Fading | The April 6 Gap Narrowed

Mar 30, 2026

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9 min read

Paper Lost the Narrative | Oil Pressed Higher | Cuts Keep Fading | The April 6 Gap Narrowed

WTI closed near $104. The S&P fell again. Ceasefire by April 30 sits at 31%. The paper market is still trading words. Less confidently.

Bo Nichols, +1

Futures Trade Trump's Words | Physical Oil Trades the Strait | Ceasefire by End of April at 30% | The April 6 Binary

Mar 30, 2026

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10 min read

Futures Trade Trump's Words | Physical Oil Trades the Strait | Ceasefire by End of April at 30% | The April 6 Binary

Physical delivery is running more than double paper prices. Ceasefire by April at around 30%. The jobs report drops Friday into a closed market.

Bo Nichols, +1

Powell Speaks First | Jobs Data Closes the Week | The Corridor Gets Its First Measurements

Mar 29, 2026

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10 min read

Powell Speaks First | Jobs Data Closes the Week | The Corridor Gets Its First Measurements

The Fed Chair speaks Monday into the worst week of the conflict. Friday brings the jobs report. Everything in between tests whether the shock has reached the labor market, the consumer, and the industrial economy yet.

Bo Nichols, +1

Six Things That Actually Drove Markets This Week

Mar 28, 2026

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11 min read

Six Things That Actually Drove Markets This Week

Deadlines stopped buying relief. A peace plan made the gap visible. Oil found its corridor. And by Friday, the market had stopped asking when the shock ends and started pricing how long the system runs without resolution.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Extension Failed | Oil Broke Higher | Bonds Confirmed It | The Price of April 6

Mar 27, 2026

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10 min read

The Extension Failed | Oil Broke Higher | Bonds Confirmed It | The Price of April 6

Brent pushed past $110. Equities sold again. The deadline moved. The pricing didn’t.

Bo Nichols, +1