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Jobs Print Walks Into a War Premium | Ceasefire Curve Extends to June | Fed Frozen at 98% | Oil Already Wrote the Next Chapter

Mar 6, 2026

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10 min read

Jobs Print Walks Into a War Premium | Ceasefire Curve Extends to June | Fed Frozen at 98% | Oil Already Wrote the Next Chapter

February payrolls drop at 8:30 into an $81 oil regime. Polymarket's June 30 ceasefire window rose to 68% overnight while March 31 fell to 30%. The number matters less than the conditions it lands in.

Bo Nichols, +1

Equities Took the Relief | Ceasefire Curve Took the Calendar | March 31 Fell to 32% | Friday’s Jobs Report Walks Into a War Premium

Mar 5, 2026

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12 min read

Equities Took the Relief | Ceasefire Curve Took the Calendar | March 31 Fell to 32% | Friday’s Jobs Report Walks Into a War Premium

The S&P bounced on ADP’s 63k beat, then sold hard. Polymarket’s March 31 ceasefire window slipped to 39% while June 30 held 66%. Kalshi’s March hold sits near certainty. Two markets. Two timelines.

Bo Nichols, +1

Mar 5, 2026

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11 min read

Equities Took the Relief | Ceasefire Curve Took the Calendar | March 31 Fell to 32% | Friday's Jobs Report Walks Into a War Premium

The S&P recovered 0.8% on ADP's 63k beat. Polymarket's March 31 ceasefire window fell to 32% while June 30 held at 68%. Kalshi prices 97% odds of a March hold. Two markets. Two timelines.

Bo Nichols, +1

Asia Hit the Circuit Breaker | Hormuz Odds Rebounded | Fed Still Frozen | The Off-Ramp Stayed Out

Mar 4, 2026

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11 min read

Asia Hit the Circuit Breaker | Hormuz Odds Rebounded | Fed Still Frozen | The Off-Ramp Stayed Out

Kospi’s worst two-day shock since 2008. Kalshi’s Hormuz closure curve snapped back overnight. Polymarket’s ceasefire window kept bleeding lower. The escort signal bought hours, not relief.

Bo Nichols, +1

Ceasefire at 34% | Fed Frozen | Off-Ramp Priced Out

Mar 4, 2026

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11 min read

Ceasefire at 34% | Fed Frozen | Off-Ramp Priced Out

South Korea's worst two-day crash since 2008. Polymarket's March ceasefire at 34% and falling. Kalshi Hormuz closure odds reversed overnight. The escort signal held for six hours.

Bo Nichols, +1

Closure Collapsed | Escalation Climbed | The Curve Rotated

Mar 3, 2026

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9 min read

Closure Collapsed | Escalation Climbed | The Curve Rotated

Hormuz odds were cut in half after the escort signal. Coalition expansion jumped. Succession markets concentrated. The duration trade did not fade. It migrated.

Bo Nichols, +1