Oil Crashed Before Markets Opened. Prediction Markets Knew Why.

Iran strike pricing reset over the weekend, oil opened down, gold and silver kept sliding.

Markets opened Monday to a selloff that started forming Saturday night.

S&P futures fell over 1%. Nasdaq futures dropped nearly 2%.

Asian stocks had their worst two days since April. South Korea's Kospi plunged 4% on AI valuation fears.

The dollar kept climbing. Yields pushed higher.

But commodities told the real story.

Oil crashed around 5%. Brent dropped toward $66. WTI fell below $62.

Gold slid another 5% to below $4,600. Silver tumbled over 10% to around $77. Bitcoin broke below $77,000.

The trigger? Trump said Iran was "seriously talking" with Washington.

But here's what mattered. Polymarket's Iran strike contract repriced before Sunday ended.

February 13 strike odds fell from 49% to 15%. A 34-point drop. $153 million in volume caught the shift while markets were closed.

By the time oil opened Monday, the risk premium was already gone.

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Brent hit a six-month high last week. WTI touched levels not seen since September.

The rally wasn't about supply. It was about geopolitical fear.

Trump had sent a carrier group. He warned Tehran time was running out. Traders priced in supply disruption. They bet that 20% of global oil through the Strait of Hormuz could be threatened.

Then the weekend changed everything.

Trump told reporters Iran was "seriously talking." Tehran confirmed talks were being arranged. Iran's military said it had no plans for exercises in the Strait.

The escalation narrative flipped in 48 hours. What took weeks to build unwound over a weekend.

Polymarket moved first. February 13 odds collapsed from 50% to 15%. February 28 dropped to 29%.

But the probability didn't vanish. It shifted outward. March rose to 43%. June climbed to 55%.

The market still expects a strike. Just not soon.

When oil opened Monday, Brent dropped 5%. That wasn't a reaction. That was confirmation.

Prediction markets had already priced de-escalation. Commodities were catching up.

Gold fell another 5% Monday to below $4,600. Down from $5,600 Thursday. Over 15% gone in three sessions.

Silver dropped 10% more to around $77. Down from $120. Nearly 40% erased in a week.

Analysts are calling it the worst stretch since the early 1980s. 

CME hiked margins twice in three days. That accelerated the liquidations.

Polymarket is pricing where the floor might be.

Gold contracts show 88% odds it drops below $4,700 by end of February. 82% odds below $4,600. 50% odds below $4,450.

Only 28% odds it rebounds to $5,500. Volume is betting on weakness, not a bounce.

Silver looks worse. 76% odds below $75 by month end. 57% odds below $70. Only 17% odds it returns to $120.

The crowded trade from last week has unwound.

This isn't profit-taking. The "hard money" thesis is breaking across every asset.

Gold, silver, bitcoin—all repricing the same signal. The Fed won't go dovish under Warsh. The dollar won't weaken. The debasement trade is over.

Prediction markets called it Thursday. Traditional markets are still catching up.

The repricing has been violent. But it may not be finished.

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It hit $76,000 over the weekend. Now near $77,000. Fourth straight monthly loss. Longest streak since 2018.

Total crypto market cap has dropped from $4.3 trillion to $2.5 trillion.

Polymarket shows a coin flip on holding $78,000 today. That probability collapsed 48 points from last week.

Odds of holding $80,000? Just 9%.

Over $500 million in longs got liquidated over the weekend. Spot ETFs lost $1.6 billion in January. The institutional bid that held bitcoin through 2024 has faded.

The AI trade wobbled too. Same pattern as metals and crypto. What ran hot in January is cooling fast.

Nvidia's $100 billion OpenAI deal stalled. Reports say Jensen Huang criticized OpenAI's "lack of discipline." Nvidia fell 3% in Asia. Oracle dropped 5%.

The questions are familiar. Did valuations run ahead of fundamentals? The hard money trade asked that last week. Now AI is asking it too.

The shutdown enters day three.

Polymarket shows 98% odds it lasts at least 4 days. That jumped 60 points over the weekend.

But odds past 7 days? Just 12%.

House Rules Committee meets Monday at 4pm. Johnson says he has Tuesday votes.

Markets see a procedural delay. Not a crisis.

February 13 odds collapsed from 49% to 15% between Friday and Sunday. That 34-point move happened while commodity markets were closed.

$153 million repriced geopolitical risk before oil traders could act.

Monday's oil crash will be explained as profit-taking. De-escalation relief. OPEC+ holding steady.

All true. None explains when the repricing happened.

The timing came from prediction markets. Weekend news moved Saturday. Oil moved Monday.

That gap is where informed traders operated. Anyone watching Polymarket saw Iran risk collapse in real time. Anyone waiting for traditional markets missed it.

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$153 million on Iran strike contracts. $11 million on shutdown duration.

That ratio shows what capital tracked this weekend.

Shutdown talk filled Sunday shows. Johnson on Meet the Press. Jeffries on This Week. Congressional procedure got the airtime.

But the real repricing happened elsewhere.

Iran went from coin-flip odds of strike to 15%. That signal moved oil 5% Monday morning. That's where the trade was.

Friday's metals crash grabbed headlines. It was dramatic. Historic. Easy to cover.

But Iran de-escalation moved Monday's markets. Prediction markets priced both before coverage caught up.

The timing gap keeps widening. That gap is where this newsletter operates.

Tuesday brings the House vote. Resolution expected midweek. Markets have moved on.

The metals story isn't over. Gold sits near $4,600. 50% odds it falls to $4,450. Friday's crash may have room to run.

Bitcoin hangs at $77,000. Fourth straight monthly loss could extend.

Iran talks will fill headlines this week. Diplomats will talk. Analysts will speculate.

But prediction markets already moved. Strike odds pushed to March. Oil already responded.

Capital moved over the weekend. Coverage follows.