Feb 9, 2026
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11 min read
Dow crossed 50K without a jobs report. Kalshi holds Fed pause above 80% on $78M. China sells Treasuries while Polymarket prices a Trump visit by April at 84%.
Feb 6, 2026
DHS funding expires next week and Polymarket sees 65% shutdown. VIX jumped 16% on tech earnings. The fiscal cliff hasn't even registered.
Feb 5, 2026
10 min read
Prediction markets closed every open question this week. Traditional assets are still debating.
Feb 4, 2026
The VIX said calm. Gold said panic. Prediction markets said the dollar would surge three days before traditional indicators caught up. Here's what happened.
Feb 3, 2026
Prediction markets showed over 90% quick resolution while coverage framed gridlock. Tuesday's vote was theater.
Feb 2, 2026
Iran Odds Fell First. Oil Fell Next. Iran strike pricing reset over the weekend, oil opened down, gold and silver kept sliding.
Jan 30, 2026
Shutdown odds swung 70 points. Fed Chair odds locked in before sunrise.. Stocks barely reacted.
Jan 29, 2026
Stocks near records, deadline hits Friday, Congress stayed gridlocked, shutdown odds dropped 30 points in 48 hours.
Jan 28, 2026
Fed holds at 99%, shutdown odds holding at 72%, Chair announcement pushed to February.
Jan 27, 2026
Fed hold pinned at 99%, shutdown priced 76–80%, Chair odds flipped to Rieder.
Jan 26, 2026
12 min read
Shutdown odds spiked from 8% to 77%, Fed hold stayed near 99%, capital anchored on the FOMC contract.
Jan 23, 2026
Stocks rebounded on tariff relief, Greenland odds compressed, markets are now pricing walkback probability.
Dec 19, 2025
6 min read
This was not a week of surprises. It was a week of reactions: fast, focused, and unforgiving.
Dec 9, 2025
5 min read
Prediction markets are mapping the fractures as investors hedge against multiple futures at once.
Dec 2, 2025
4 min read
Prediction markets are repricing the collision between rate-cut optimism, macro surprises, and a consumer on borrowed momentum.
Nov 25, 2025
Prediction markets are already mapping which narrative collapses first: resilience or re-acceleration.
