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Hot Data, Lower Odds. The Fed Bet Moved on Words, Not Numbers.

Oct 17, 2026

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6 min read

Hot Data, Lower Odds. The Fed Bet Moved on Words, Not Numbers.

Kalshi's October hike contract ended near 13 cents after a 55-cent peak. Two September CPI contracts paid on a single tenth. Polymarket's 5.4% yield rung fell to about 36%.

Bo Nichols, +1

The AI Selloff Resumed | Banks Built for High Rates | Index Rules Moved Money | Big Bets Against a Hike

Oct 16, 2026

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5 min read

The AI Selloff Resumed | Banks Built for High Rates | Index Rules Moved Money | Big Bets Against a Hike

CoreWeave lost about a quarter of its value this week, and software stocks slid with no company news. Two banks sold old bonds at a loss to earn more later. Kalshi sellers put about $88,000 against an October hike.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Fed Chair Said Nothing | Lenders Charged More for AI | Hormuz Flows Fell a Third | A Hike Bet Halved

Oct 16, 2026

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5 min read

The Fed Chair Said Nothing | Lenders Charged More for AI | Hormuz Flows Fell a Third | A Hike Bet Halved

Warsh declined to signal October, and a Kalshi hike bet fell by about half overnight. Banks sweetened a $5 billion AI loan to sell it. Oil flows through Hormuz ran a third below their baseline.

Bo Nichols, +1

Producer Prices Jumped | Bonds Rallied Anyway | AI Selling Moved to Hardware | A Hike Bet Spiked and Faded

Oct 15, 2026

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5 min read

Producer Prices Jumped | Bonds Rallied Anyway | AI Selling Moved to Hardware | A Hike Bet Spiked and Faded

Producer prices rose 1.3%, the most since 2022, yet the 10-year yield fell to a three-week low. Dell slid again while CoreWeave bounced. A Kalshi hike bet touched 37 cents, then gave it back.

Bo Nichols, +1

AI's Lenders Flinch | TSMC Plans Carefully for 2027 | Bonds Rallied After a Hot Print | A Blockade Bet Slid

Oct 15, 2026

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5 min read

AI's Lenders Flinch | TSMC Plans Carefully for 2027 | Bonds Rallied After a Hot Print | A Blockade Bet Slid

The cost of insuring Oracle's debt hit a record, and Seoul tripped a circuit breaker. TSMC posted a record quarter and called its 2027 planning prudent. The 10-year yield fell to a three-week low before the 8:30 a.m. data.

Bo Nichols, +1

Core Ran Hot Again | Borrowers Took the Hit | Oil Producers Set Records | A Fed Contract Hit 55 Cents

Oct 14, 2026

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5 min read

Core Ran Hot Again | Borrowers Took the Hit | Oil Producers Set Records | A Fed Contract Hit 55 Cents

Core consumer prices rose 0.3% for a second month, above forecasts. CoreWeave fell about 15% as yields on its notes neared 15%. Kalshi's October hike contract tripled within 40 minutes, then gave back more than half.

Bo Nichols, +1