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Iranian Regime at 42% | Hormuz Closure at 46% | Fed Locked at 95% Hold | The Proof Test Got a Different Answer

Mar 2, 2026

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11 min read

Iranian Regime at 42% | Hormuz Closure at 46% | Fed Locked at 95% Hold | The Proof Test Got a Different Answer

Ceasefire by March 6 sits at 6% on Polymarket. Kalshi prices 95% Fed hold on $15M in volume. The six clocks are running — inside a different regime now.

Bo Nichols, +1

Mar 1, 2026

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12 min read

The Clocks Meet the Data This Week

Iran frames oil, inflation, and policy this week. Tariffs moved to the courts. Nvidia proved demand and still slipped. The Fed stayed pinned while yields fell. Now PMI, payrolls, retail sales, and a full earnings slate decide whether last week’s splits hold.

Bo Nichols, +1

Six Things That Actually Drove Last Week’s Tape

Feb 28, 2026

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10 min read

Six Things That Actually Drove Last Week’s Tape

Tariffs did not disappear, they changed form. Nvidia proved demand and still didn’t lift the index. Iran stopped being “someday” and became a calendar. The Fed stayed pinned while yields slid. The shutdown turned into a day-count trade. And the cleanest edge was still the overnight timing gap.

Bo Nichols, +1

Capital Rotated Before the Selloff | Nvidia Worst Day Since April | Geneva Pushes Risk to June | February Closes the Books

Feb 27, 2026

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12 min read

Capital Rotated Before the Selloff | Nvidia Worst Day Since April | Geneva Pushes Risk to June | February Closes the Books

Nvidia fell 5%+ on a clean beat. Asia posted its best February since 1998. Iran’s June strike window jumped. February closes with capital already repositioned.

Bo Nichols, +1

Feb 27, 2026

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10 min read

Capital Rotated Before the Selloff | Nvidia Worst Day Since April | Geneva Pushes Risk to June | February Closes the Books

Nvidia fell 5%+ on a clean beat. Asia's best February since 1998. Iran's June window jumped 8 points. February closes today.

Bo Nichols, +1

Nvidia Delivered, Market Shrugged | Geneva Held the Line | Salesforce Reopens the App Question | S&P Fades the Coin Flip

Feb 26, 2026

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10 min read

Nvidia Delivered, Market Shrugged | Geneva Held the Line | Salesforce Reopens the App Question | S&P Fades the Coin Flip

Nvidia beat big, but $190 odds collapsed from 85% to 20%. Geneva’s strike window held near 2% today while March 31 sits at 55%. The S&P closed soft after a 48/52 open split.

Bo Nichols, +1