The World’s First Truly Predictive Markets Intelligence Briefing.

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Every day, billions of dollars flow through markets that trade not assets, but events.
From elections and policy decisions to tech breakthroughs and global crises, prediction markets are transforming the way we understand probability, sentiment, and truth.

The Week the Long End Paid the Most Since 2001

Aug 15, 2026

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7 min read

The Week the Long End Paid the Most Since 2001

CPI matched. PPI ran flat. The Fed got its patience print. Cisco beat and fell. The three-year drew $157 billion. The thirty-year cleared at 5.216%. The bid arrived. It just cost more.

Bo Nichols, +1

Retail Sales Break | The Long End Backs Up | Oil Holds the Floor | The Consumer the Rally Still Needs

Aug 14, 2026

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4 min read

Retail Sales Break | The Long End Backs Up | Oil Holds the Floor | The Consumer the Rally Still Needs

July retail sales fell 0.6%. The 10-year rose to 4.69%. Oil stayed above $82. Prediction markets still price no cuts.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Long Bond Pays Most Since 2001 | Domestic Money Replaces the Foreign Bid | Claims Turn Up | The Number Behind the Zero

Aug 14, 2026

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5 min read

The Long Bond Pays Most Since 2001 | Domestic Money Replaces the Foreign Bid | Claims Turn Up | The Number Behind the Zero

Producer prices were flat in July. One stage upstream, processed goods ran 9.9% over the year. The long bond paid the most since 2001.

Bo Nichols, +1

PPI Clears the Tape | Cisco Fails the Margin Test | Hormuz Stays Blocked | The Rally That Still Needs Terms

Aug 13, 2026

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5 min read

PPI Clears the Tape | Cisco Fails the Margin Test | Hormuz Stays Blocked | The Rally That Still Needs Terms

Wholesale prices were flat. The S&P topped 7,800. Cisco beat and fell. Hormuz traffic stayed near a three-month low.

Bo Nichols, +1

Indirect Bidders Step Back | Ten-Year Pays More Than July | Cisco Beats and Falls | The Auction the Rally Ignored

Aug 13, 2026

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4 min read

Indirect Bidders Step Back | Ten-Year Pays More Than July | Cisco Beats and Falls | The Auction the Rally Ignored

The ten-year cost ten more basis points than July's sale, and the indirect bid fell almost five points. Stocks spent the day somewhere else.

Bo Nichols, +1

CPI Clears the Bar | AI Takes the Bid | The Ten-Year Stands Still | The Relief That Stopped at Duration

Aug 12, 2026

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5 min read

CPI Clears the Bar | AI Takes the Bid | The Ten-Year Stands Still | The Relief That Stopped at Duration

Headline CPI eased to 3.4%. Core fell to 2.5%. Nasdaq gained 0.55%. The 10-year did not move.

Bo Nichols, +1