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Risk Got New Dates. Payrolls Delivered a Number.

Oct 3, 2026

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6 min read

Risk Got New Dates. Payrolls Delivered a Number.

Kalshi's October hike odds fell from 70% to 17%. Payrolls rose 29,000 as unemployment hit 4.2%. The 10-year's 5.5% rung ran from 25% to 59% and back to 29%.

Bo Nichols, +1

Payrolls Cracked | Traders Priced an October Pause | The 10-Year Still Rose | The AI Race Split by Month

Oct 2, 2026

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5 min read

Payrolls Cracked | Traders Priced an October Pause | The 10-Year Still Rose | The AI Race Split by Month

Payrolls rose just 29,000. October hike odds fell to 18%. The 10-year still finished higher, at 5.28%.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Lost the Premium | Jobs Take the Tape | The Ten-Year Eased | Google Reopened the AI Race

Oct 2, 2026

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5 min read

Oil Lost the Premium | Jobs Take the Tape | The Ten-Year Eased | Google Reopened the AI Race

WTI fell below $90 on reserve-release talks. Futures rose, no October hike held near 72%, and payrolls are due at 84,000.

Bo Nichols, +1

Markets Stopped Selling and Started Choosing | Oil Took the Premium Back | An AI Campus Hit a Power Delay | October Moved to December

Oct 1, 2026

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5 min read

Markets Stopped Selling and Started Choosing | Oil Took the Premium Back | An AI Campus Hit a Power Delay | October Moved to December

The 10-year touched 5.34% and closed at 5.239%. Brent topped $102 on China's fuel halt and a third carrier group. Debt behind a 2.45-gigawatt Oracle campus traded below 90 cents.

Bo Nichols, +1

Yields Hit 2002 Levels | Fuel Risk Returns | October Moves to Hold | AI Keeps the Bid

Oct 1, 2026

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5 min read

Yields Hit 2002 Levels | Fuel Risk Returns | October Moves to Hold | AI Keeps the Bid

Futures split as the 10-year reached 5.33%, Brent topped $100, and October no-change odds rose to 64%.

Bo Nichols, +1

Inflation Eased on Revision | The 10-Year Hit a 2002 High | Hormuz Split the Barrel | Platform Scrutiny Deepened

Sep 30, 2026

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5 min read

Inflation Eased on Revision | The 10-Year Hit a 2002 High | Hormuz Split the Barrel | Platform Scrutiny Deepened

Core PCE held at 3.0% on revised math. The 10-year touched its highest level since 2002. Hormuz fuel shipments stayed below a fifth of prewar levels.

Bo Nichols, +1