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Retail Sales Break | The Long End Backs Up | Oil Holds the Floor | The Consumer the Rally Still Needs

Aug 14, 2026

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4 min read

Retail Sales Break | The Long End Backs Up | Oil Holds the Floor | The Consumer the Rally Still Needs

July retail sales fell 0.6%. The 10-year rose to 4.69%. Oil stayed above $82. Prediction markets still price no cuts.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Long Bond Pays Most Since 2001 | Domestic Money Replaces the Foreign Bid | Claims Turn Up | The Number Behind the Zero

Aug 14, 2026

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5 min read

The Long Bond Pays Most Since 2001 | Domestic Money Replaces the Foreign Bid | Claims Turn Up | The Number Behind the Zero

Producer prices were flat in July. One stage upstream, processed goods ran 9.9% over the year. The long bond paid the most since 2001.

Bo Nichols, +1

PPI Clears the Tape | Cisco Fails the Margin Test | Hormuz Stays Blocked | The Rally That Still Needs Terms

Aug 13, 2026

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5 min read

PPI Clears the Tape | Cisco Fails the Margin Test | Hormuz Stays Blocked | The Rally That Still Needs Terms

Wholesale prices were flat. The S&P topped 7,800. Cisco beat and fell. Hormuz traffic stayed near a three-month low.

Bo Nichols, +1

Indirect Bidders Step Back | Ten-Year Pays More Than July | Cisco Beats and Falls | The Auction the Rally Ignored

Aug 13, 2026

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4 min read

Indirect Bidders Step Back | Ten-Year Pays More Than July | Cisco Beats and Falls | The Auction the Rally Ignored

The ten-year cost ten more basis points than July's sale, and the indirect bid fell almost five points. Stocks spent the day somewhere else.

Bo Nichols, +1

CPI Clears the Bar | AI Takes the Bid | The Ten-Year Stands Still | The Relief That Stopped at Duration

Aug 12, 2026

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5 min read

CPI Clears the Bar | AI Takes the Bid | The Ten-Year Stands Still | The Relief That Stopped at Duration

Headline CPI eased to 3.4%. Core fell to 2.5%. Nasdaq gained 0.55%. The 10-year did not move.

Bo Nichols, +1

Three-Year Draws $157B of Bids | The Curve Barely Moves | CPI at 8:30 | The Bid That Stops at Three Years

Aug 12, 2026

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4 min read

Three-Year Draws $157B of Bids | The Curve Barely Moves | CPI at 8:30 | The Bid That Stops at Three Years

Bids ran six and a half billion above last month's sale, at eleven more basis points. The ten-year has to repeat it after the print.

Bo Nichols, +1