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Relief Priced in Minutes. The Record Took the Week.

Sep 26, 2026

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6 min read

Relief Priced in Minutes. The Record Took the Week.

Pipeline odds ran from 30% to 88% and back to 32%. The 10-year topped 5.2% on screens before the Treasury table. A truce got two months, and the deal contract still waits for paper.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Gave the Bounce | The Long End Didn't Follow | The Pump Kept Climbing | Polymarket Sued Back

Sep 25, 2026

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5 min read

Oil Gave the Bounce | The Long End Didn't Follow | The Pump Kept Climbing | Polymarket Sued Back

The Dow rose 478 points and WTI fell below $93, but the 30-year rose and bond volatility jumped almost 10%.

Bo Nichols, +1

Futures Try to Stabilize | Hormuz Still Needs Traffic | The Ten-Year Holds Five | Venue Risk Enters the Tape

Sep 25, 2026

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5 min read

Futures Try to Stabilize | Hormuz Still Needs Traffic | The Ten-Year Holds Five | Venue Risk Enters the Tape

Futures rose as Hormuz talks resumed, but pipeline odds fell and normal strait traffic stayed years out.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Long End Kept Climbing | Oil Priced Both Ways | Diesel Odds Faded | New York Sued Polymarket

Sep 24, 2026

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5 min read

The Long End Kept Climbing | Oil Priced Both Ways | Diesel Odds Faded | New York Sued Polymarket

The 10-year closed near 5.2%, WTI rose more than 3%, and Polymarket put a 5.3% touch at 71%.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Ten-Year Takes Over | Oil Reprices the Floor | October Tightens | Relief Needs Lower Yields

Sep 24, 2026

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5 min read

The Ten-Year Takes Over | Oil Reprices the Floor | October Tightens | Relief Needs Lower Yields

Futures fell as the 10-year neared 5.15%, October hike odds hit 68%, and WTI tails moved higher.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Ten-Year Hit a 2007 High | Oil Snapped Back | Pipeline Odds Faded | The Relief Trade Broke

Sep 23, 2026

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6 min read

The Ten-Year Hit a 2007 High | Oil Snapped Back | Pipeline Odds Faded | The Relief Trade Broke

The 10-year hit 5.12%, WTI rose 2.33%, and September pipeline restart odds fell to 52%.

Bo Nichols, +1