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The Ten-Year Hit a 2007 High | Oil Snapped Back | Pipeline Odds Faded | The Relief Trade Broke

Sep 23, 2026

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6 min read

The Ten-Year Hit a 2007 High | Oil Snapped Back | Pipeline Odds Faded | The Relief Trade Broke

The 10-year hit 5.12%, WTI rose 2.33%, and September pipeline restart odds fell to 52%.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Holds the Break | Hormuz Still Needs Proof | The Ten-Year Stalls | The Fed Keeps the Floor

Sep 23, 2026

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5 min read

Oil Holds the Break | Hormuz Still Needs Proof | The Ten-Year Stalls | The Fed Keeps the Floor

Futures were flat as WTI held near $90, pipeline odds slipped, and two 2026 hikes priced at 64%.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Held the Break | Nasdaq Kept the Bid | Pipeline Odds Slipped | The Relief Still Needs Proof

Sep 22, 2026

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5 min read

Oil Held the Break | Nasdaq Kept the Bid | Pipeline Odds Slipped | The Relief Still Needs Proof

WTI closed at $95.21, Nasdaq rose 0.45%, and pipeline restart odds eased to 66% by September 30.

Bo Nichols, +1

Hormuz Offers the Break | Pipeline Odds Reprice | The Ten-Year Slips | Relief Needs a Deal

Sep 22, 2026

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5 min read

Hormuz Offers the Break | Pipeline Odds Reprice | The Ten-Year Slips | Relief Needs a Deal

Futures held steady as WTI fell near $93, pipeline restart odds jumped, and the 10-year eased to 4.943%.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Broke Lower | Tech Reclaimed the Tape | The Pipeline Clock Ran Backward | Relief Still Needs Repair

Sep 21, 2026

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6 min read

Oil Broke Lower | Tech Reclaimed the Tape | The Pipeline Clock Ran Backward | Relief Still Needs Repair

Oil fell 4.68% to $95.61, the Nasdaq rose 2.26% on an AI-led surge, and Polymarket's Saudi pipeline restart odds fell across every horizon over the weekend, to just 31% by September 30.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Breaks Lower | The Pipeline Clock Stays Open | China Talks Lift Risk | The Flow Trade Is Not Fixed

Sep 21, 2026

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5 min read

Oil Breaks Lower | The Pipeline Clock Stays Open | China Talks Lift Risk | The Flow Trade Is Not Fixed

Dow futures rose 407 points as WTI fell to $97, but pipeline restart odds stayed low for September.

Bo Nichols, +1