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Capital Rotated Before the Selloff | Nvidia Worst Day Since April | Geneva Pushes Risk to June | February Closes the Books

Feb 27, 2026

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10 min read

Capital Rotated Before the Selloff | Nvidia Worst Day Since April | Geneva Pushes Risk to June | February Closes the Books

Nvidia fell 5%+ on a clean beat. Asia's best February since 1998. Iran's June window jumped 8 points. February closes today.

Bo Nichols, +1

Nvidia Delivered, Market Shrugged | Geneva Held the Line | Salesforce Reopens the App Question | S&P Fades the Coin Flip

Feb 26, 2026

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10 min read

Nvidia Delivered, Market Shrugged | Geneva Held the Line | Salesforce Reopens the App Question | S&P Fades the Coin Flip

Nvidia beat big, but $190 odds collapsed from 85% to 20%. Geneva’s strike window held near 2% today while March 31 sits at 55%. The S&P closed soft after a 48/52 open split.

Bo Nichols, +1

Nvidia Delivered, Market Shrugged | Geneva Talks Open Now | Salesforce Flags the App Layer | S&P Open Splits 48/52

Feb 26, 2026

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11 min read

Nvidia Delivered, Market Shrugged | Geneva Talks Open Now | Salesforce Flags the App Layer | S&P Open Splits 48/52

Nvidia beat by $2B and crushed Q1 guidance, but the stock barely moved. Geneva is live with Polymarket pricing today's strike window at 2%. The S&P open splits 48/52 on $62K in early volume.

Bo Nichols, +1

SCOTUS Clock Accelerates | Iran Holds 61% | Nvidia Clears the Print | Conviction Stayed Put

Feb 25, 2026

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10 min read

SCOTUS Clock Accelerates | Iran Holds 61% | Nvidia Clears the Print | Conviction Stayed Put

The Supreme Court tariff-hearing odds jumped to 74%. Iran’s March 31 window held at 61%. Warsh remains 94%. Stocks rallied. The core contracts barely moved.

Bo Nichols, +1

SOTU Settled Tariffs | Iran Curve Held | Nvidia Faces the Guidance Gap | S&P Year-End Splits 55/45

Feb 25, 2026

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11 min read

SOTU Settled Tariffs | Iran Curve Held | Nvidia Faces the Guidance Gap | S&P Year-End Splits 55/45

Trump locked in 15% tariffs and gave Iran no deadline. Polymarket strike odds held near 50% on $413M. Nvidia reports tonight.

Bo Nichols, +1

AI Scare Trade Hit the App Layer | Iran Curve Re-Loads March | DHS Shutdown Hits Day 39 | The Fed Isn’t Moving

Feb 24, 2026

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9 min read

AI Scare Trade Hit the App Layer | Iran Curve Re-Loads March | DHS Shutdown Hits Day 39 | The Fed Isn’t Moving

A “fiction” memo triggered IBM’s worst drop in 25 years. Iran sits near 60% by March 31. The Fed hold remains pinned. Equities bounced. The calendar didn’t.

Bo Nichols, +1