Duration Took the Lead | Hormuz Odds Surge | Ceasefire Curve Extends | The Scissors Trade Widens

Hormuz closure odds jumped across every window. Ceasefire shifted into late March and April. Fed hold remains near 95%. The regime changed from event to duration.

Oil closed up over 8% earlier in the session before settling near $72. Gold surged above $5,350. The VIX rose over 8%. The dollar strengthened sharply. Mortgage rates reversed last week’s decline as geopolitical risk pushed Treasury yields higher into the close.

That last part matters.

The morning read was recession hedge. By the close, the 10-year yield had climbed back above 4%. Bonds initially priced growth fear. Then they recalibrated toward inflation risk.

This is no longer a clean “risk-off” regime. It’s a split regime.

Air travel out of Dubai resumed cautiously, with Emirates launching its first outbound flight since the strikes. The infrastructure held. The risk premium did not collapse. That’s the distinction.

Prediction markets show what traditional markets cannot: the shift from intensity to persistence.

Polymarket’s March 6 ceasefire contract remains low probability. The March 31 ceasefire window climbed sharply. Hormuz closure odds surged across every window.

The question is no longer whether escalation happened.

The question is how long the premium stays embedded.

When oil, gold, the dollar, and yields all move in the same session, the market is not confused. It is repricing baseline assumptions. The event is over. The duration trade has begun.

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Polymarket’s “Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz by March 31” jumped from roughly 41% to 65%. June 30 surged to nearly 69%. December climbed to 76%.

Kalshi’s version of the same trade confirms the structure:

This is not a spike. It is a repricing of baseline.

The flat curve from this morning steepened into a duration slope. The crowd is no longer pricing a short interruption. It is pricing sustained commercial disruption.

Ceasefire contracts reflect the same logic.

March 15 rose from around 25% to 32%. March 31 climbed from 44% to 51%. April and May windows sit even higher. The immediate off-ramp remains unlikely. The negotiated exit is now a late-Q1 or Q2 event.

Duration moved forward.

The persistence signal matters more than the spike. A temporary energy shock is sectoral. A multi-month insurance freeze alters inflation, shipping costs, and capex.

The limiting variable is not oil at $72. It is oil at $72 for eight weeks.

When near-term resolution odds fall and later windows rise, the crowd isn’t calming down. It is sequencing. Persistent shocks reprice policy, not just sectors.

By the close, the scissors widened.

Oil stayed elevated. Gold surged. The 10-year yield reversed higher. That combination tells you growth fear did not fully dominate inflation risk.

The Fed remains locked.

Kalshi prices a March hold at 96%. Cuts remain near statistical noise. Volume continues climbing above $15 million without meaningful movement in odds.

That’s the anchor.

At the same time, Fed Chair odds remain unchanged. Kevin Warsh holds 94% on over $203 million in volume. The transition remains embedded. The shock did not dislodge it.

But leadership transition plus energy shock plus sticky services inflation creates a policy environment with less flexibility, not more.

The regime fall contract adds another layer. “Iranian regime falls by June 30” dropped from 42% to 36%. That’s a subtle but important shift. The crowd is pricing sustained conflict without immediate regime collapse.

Stability through conflict.

That implies:

This is not the fastest path to resolution.

When leadership-transition odds hold steady while conflict-duration odds rise, markets are pricing containment, not collapse. Containment extends volatility without delivering clarity.

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Saudi Arabia moved from 48% to 51%. UAE ticked higher. Bahrain climbed. The UK dropped significantly.

The crowd is refining coalition probabilities.

Another contract, “Will another country strike Iran?”, gained heavy volume. The expansion risk is no longer hypothetical. It is being priced as conditional.

Meanwhile, succession markets are active.

The “Next Supreme Leader of Iran” contract is drawing steady volume:

These aren’t fringe bets. They’re regime-structure trades.

When prediction markets begin pricing specific successor names, that’s a structural stage shift. The conversation moves from strike mechanics to state continuity. At the same time, mortgage rates jumped sharply after the strikes, reversing last week’s decline. Domestic financial conditions are now reacting to geopolitical duration.

This is transmission.

The shock moved from Gulf waters to U.S. housing spreads in under 48 hours.

Escalation risk becomes macro risk when it reaches credit channels. Mortgage rates reacting to oil tells you the premium is no longer regional. It’s systemic.

The strikes resolved intensity markets.

Those contracts closed.

What remains live are persistence markets.

Here’s the distinction:

Hormuz closure odds climbing across May, August, and 2027 windows tell you this is no longer about “did it happen.” It’s about commercial normalization. Ceasefire curves steepening into late March and April show sequencing. The crowd is building a timeline, not reacting to headlines.

Regime-fall probabilities drifting lower while closure probabilities rise indicate containment with pressure. 

That’s a slower burn regime.

When persistence markets lead, volatility doesn’t spike and fade. It grinds. The edge lives in tracking which window steepens next.

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These are not random. They cluster around durability and succession.

Markets are pricing structure.

When volume migrates from “will there be a strike?” to “who governs next?” the regime has shifted from kinetic to structural. That transition carries longer volatility tails.

Here’s the structure:

1. Energy Persistence

2. Ceasefire Sequencing

3. Policy Anchor

4. Structural Repricing

The event phase ended over the weekend.

The persistence phase began today.

If oil stabilizes and yields climb further, inflation risk dominates. If oil holds and yields fall again, growth fear takes over. Either way, volatility doesn’t disappear. It reallocates.

March opened with intensity.

It will be defined by duration.

The strike was an event. The calendar is the trade.