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Sep 20, 2026

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6 min read

The Week Nobody Measures Inflation

The Fed's statement ran about 130 words and then the explaining stopped. Ten speaking slots, no price data, a mortgage survey five basis points from paying an 84-cent contract, and two deadlines with real dates on them.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Week the Fed Hiked and October Got Harder

Sep 19, 2026

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5 min read

The Week the Fed Hiked and October Got Harder

A quarter point landed exactly as priced. Sixteen of 18 officials want more. October repriced from 36 cents to 55 after the vote, the five percent contract finally paid on a Treasury table, and diesel set a record crude never touched.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Broke under $100 | The Ten-Year Reclaimed Five | October Flipped | The Relief That Tightened

Sep 18, 2026

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5 min read

Oil Broke under $100 | The Ten-Year Reclaimed Five | October Flipped | The Relief That Tightened

WTI closed at $99.32, the 10-year ended above 5%, and October hike odds rose to 55%.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Tests $100 | Gas Prices Hold the Risk | The Ten-Year Waits Below Five | The Cut Book Closes

Sep 18, 2026

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5 min read

Oil Tests $100 | Gas Prices Hold the Risk | The Ten-Year Waits Below Five | The Cut Book Closes

Futures rose as WTI neared $100, but gas-price markets and 0-cut odds kept the Fed path tight.

Bo Nichols, +1

Relief Bounced | The Ten-Year Slipped Under Five | October Split | The Economy Book Stayed Hot

Sep 17, 2026

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4 min read

Relief Bounced | The Ten-Year Slipped Under Five | October Split | The Economy Book Stayed Hot

Stocks rebounded as the 10-year fell to 4.94%, but October sits 50/49 and overheating trades at .736.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Gives the Rebound | The Ten-Year Stays Five | October Opens | The Hike That Did Not Close

Sep 17, 2026

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4 min read

Oil Gives the Rebound | The Ten-Year Stays Five | October Opens | The Hike That Did Not Close

Futures rose as WTI eased near $100, but another 2026 hike sits at 81% and December prices 69%.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Fed Hiked | The Ten-Year Held Five | Oil Stayed Above $100 | The Meeting After the Meeting

Sep 16, 2026

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5 min read

The Fed Hiked | The Ten-Year Held Five | Oil Stayed Above $100 | The Meeting After the Meeting

The Fed raised to 3.75% to 4%. December hike odds hit 70% while the 10-year closed above 5%.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Fed Gets the Vote | The Ten-Year Holds Five | Oil Sets the Terms | The Meeting After the Hike

Sep 16, 2026

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5 min read

The Fed Gets the Vote | The Ten-Year Holds Five | Oil Sets the Terms | The Meeting After the Hike

Futures rose as the 10-year held near 5%, oil stayed above $100, and September hike odds sat near 88%.

Bo Nichols, +1

CLARITY Failed | Oil Broke $105 | The Ten-Year Held Five | The Fed Gets the Next Vote

Sep 15, 2026

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4 min read

CLARITY Failed | Oil Broke $105 | The Ten-Year Held Five | The Fed Gets the Next Vote

WTI closed at $105.83, the 10-year held near 5%, and CLARITY odds fell to 7% before Wednesday’s Fed decision.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Ten-Year Breaks Five | Oil Trades With Bonds | AI Keeps Its Brake | The Fed Meets a Costlier Tape

Sep 15, 2026

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5 min read

The Ten-Year Breaks Five | Oil Trades With Bonds | AI Keeps Its Brake | The Fed Meets a Costlier Tape

The 10-year hit 5.041%, WTI traded near $103, and September hike odds sit at 89% before the Fed meets.

Bo Nichols, +1

AI Slows the Tape | WTI Holds Above $101 | The Ten-Year Touches Five | The Growth Trade Pays Again

Sep 14, 2026

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5 min read

AI Slows the Tape | WTI Holds Above $101 | The Ten-Year Touches Five | The Growth Trade Pays Again

Nasdaq fell 0.56%, WTI gained 1.76%, and September hike odds rose to 87% as Anthropic held 96.2% AI-model odds.

Bo Nichols, +1

AI Hits Its Own Brake | Oil Reopens Above $103 | The Ten-Year Tests Five | The Week the Growth Trade Pays Up

Sep 14, 2026

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4 min read

AI Hits Its Own Brake | Oil Reopens Above $103 | The Ten-Year Tests Five | The Week the Growth Trade Pays Up

Nasdaq futures slid 1.6%, WTI topped $103, and September hike odds sit at 80% as Anthropic leads AI-model odds.

Bo Nichols, +1

Sep 13, 2026

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6 min read

The Week the Documents Do the Deciding

A Fed hike is priced near 82%. Tokyo's is priced near 98%. Retail sales land hours before the decision, a cloture vote lands Tuesday, and a bank gets sanctioned Monday without a name.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Week the Fed Stopped Being a Coin Flip

Sep 12, 2026

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6 min read

The Week the Fed Stopped Being a Coin Flip

Core prices ran hot while the headline behaved. Diesel passed $6 for the first time. A September hike now prices above 80%, and four of the week's biggest moves settle on numbers most readers never see.

Bo Nichols, +1

CPI Fails the Last Gate | Stocks Rally Anyway | Oil Holds Above $100 | The Hike the Tape Looked Past

Sep 11, 2026

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4 min read

CPI Fails the Last Gate | Stocks Rally Anyway | Oil Holds Above $100 | The Hike the Tape Looked Past

CPI rose 3.4% as core ran hot. September hike odds jumped to 81%. Stocks rallied while the 10-year hit 4.98%.

Bo Nichols, +1

CPI Gets the Last Gate | Diesel Breaks $6 | The Ten-Year Holds Near Five | The Print Oil Already Crowded

Sep 11, 2026

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4 min read

CPI Gets the Last Gate | Diesel Breaks $6 | The Ten-Year Holds Near Five | The Print Oil Already Crowded

Futures rose as WTI slipped under $100, but September hike odds sit at 61% and core CPI prices cluster at 2.4%.

Bo Nichols, +1

PPI Fails Waller’s Test | WTI Clears $102 | The Ten-Year Nears Five | The Print Oil Tightened

Sep 10, 2026

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4 min read

PPI Fails Waller’s Test | WTI Clears $102 | The Ten-Year Nears Five | The Print Oil Tightened

PPI rose 5.4% year over year. WTI jumped 7.04%. September hike odds rose to 66%. CPI lands Friday.

Bo Nichols, +1

PPI Tests Waller’s Hold | Brent Holds Above $101 | The Ten-Year Nears Five | The Print Oil Already Tightened

Sep 10, 2026

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5 min read

PPI Tests Waller’s Hold | Brent Holds Above $101 | The Ten-Year Nears Five | The Print Oil Already Tightened

PPI is expected near 5.3% year over year as Brent holds above $101 and September hike odds sit at 52%.

Bo Nichols, +1

Credit Runs Longer | Brent Clears $101 | Cards Slow Before CPI | The Household Line That Cannot Reset

Sep 9, 2026

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5 min read

Credit Runs Longer | Brent Clears $101 | Cards Slow Before CPI | The Household Line That Cannot Reset

Consumer credit rose 4.2% in July. Card growth slowed to 2.5%. Brent settled above $101. CPI now meets a $4.15 pump.

Bo Nichols, +1

Consumer Credit Accelerates to 4.2% | Card Growth Slows to 2.5% | Small Business Optimism Dips | The Four Fifths That Run for Years

Sep 9, 2026

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4 min read

Consumer Credit Accelerates to 4.2% | Card Growth Slows to 2.5% | Small Business Optimism Dips | The Four Fifths That Run for Years

Consumer credit grew at a 4.2% annual rate in July. Card growth slowed to 2.5%. Four fifths of the increase runs for years.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Breaks $93 | China Trade Expands | Canada Tariffs Land | The Fed Week That Starts With a Barrel

Sep 8, 2026

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5 min read

Oil Breaks $93 | China Trade Expands | Canada Tariffs Land | The Fed Week That Starts With a Barrel

WTI closed at $93. China’s exports rose 25%. Canada’s tariffs went live. September hike odds held near 54%.

Bo Nichols, +1

China's Exports Rise 25% | Imports Rise Faster and Still Miss | Japan's Upgrade Undershoots | The Port Priced for Little Growth

Sep 8, 2026

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4 min read

China's Exports Rise 25% | Imports Rise Faster and Still Miss | Japan's Upgrade Undershoots | The Port Priced for Little Growth

Chinese imports also see 28% rise. August's surplus at $119.09 billion. Japan's revision landed under forecast. Ottawa's duty starts today.

Bo Nichols, +1

Sep 7, 2026

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4 min read

Wall Street's Unruly Season Starts Now

Nearly 100 years of data say this month is different. This year it comes with real tests.

Bo Nichols, +1

The Week the Other Condition Gets Tested

Sep 6, 2026

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6 min read

The Week the Other Condition Gets Tested

Payrolls cleared Warsh's labor hurdle at 162,000. Waller's hold rests on inflation cooling instead. PPI Thursday, CPI Friday. Two prints decide September.

Bo Nichols, +1

Sep 5, 2026

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7 min read

The Week the Denominator Changed

Payrolls tripled expectations at 162,000. Breakeven is now estimated near 20,000. Services inflation hit a three-year high, and September went from hike to coin flip and back inside four sessions.

Bo Nichols, +1