Profit Ahead of Cash | Same Demand, Higher Price | Contested Either Way | Tracked the Count

Democrats won Congress overnight, and stock futures recovered from a sharp drop.

Yields and the dollar fell after Democrats won Congress. The AP called the Senate for Democrats shortly before midnight, and NBC News projected a Democratic House. Several races were still being counted. Nasdaq-100 futures fell more than 2% as results came in, then turned higher. At about 6:30 a.m. ET, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were each up about 1%. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.9%, down from 4.95% Tuesday. Gold rose about 2.9% to near $4,053, and the dollar index fell about 0.45%. Bitcoin dipped to about $75,700 and was back near $78,550. ADP payrolls are due at 8:15 a.m. and ISM services at 10 a.m.

Futures fell on the count.

They rose by dawn.

AMD and Supermicro guided higher, and both booked more profit than cash.

AMD guided to about $17 billion of fourth-quarter revenue, above LSEG forecasts near $16.2 billion. Third-quarter revenue rose 45% to $13.38 billion, and data-center revenue rose 97% to a record $8.5 billion. Free cash flow fell 64% to $554 million. Inventories rose by about $3 billion in the quarter. AMD (AMD) was near $514 before the open, about 6% above Tuesday's close.

Supermicro (SMCI) said sales nearly quadrupled to $19.9 billion. Its gross margin fell to 12.7% from 17.5% in the June quarter, and operations used $434 million of cash. It guided to $19.5 billion to $21.5 billion for the December quarter. The stock was near $34, about 9% higher.

Profit Ahead of Cash

Both companies are carrying their growth on their balance sheets. AMD's inventory rose as its net income nearly doubled. Supermicro earned $1.59 billion and still used cash as inventory and receivables grew. Year-end inventory and cash flow show whether the guidance turns into collections.

Meta found the same demand as in April at a higher price.

A reported chip-materials deal hit the buyer's stock.

Meta sold $15 billion of bonds at yields from 5.85% to 7.53%. Orders reached as much as $58 billion, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the sale. That is about 3.9 times the deal, against 3.8 times in April. The longest bond still priced about 0.9 percentage point wider than a comparable April bond. Microsoft (MSFT) drew $115 billion of orders for $25 billion of bonds on Oct. 29. Its new notes traded wider the next day. Big Tech bonds now trade at their widest spreads to other high-grade debt since 2003, Bloomberg's figures show. Meta (META) was near $634 before the open.

Japan Investment Corp plans to sell chip-materials maker JSR to Mitsui Chemicals, Reuters reported. The deal could exceed 1.3 trillion yen, or about $8.2 billion, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. JIC paid about 900 billion yen two years ago, and none of the companies has confirmed a deal. Mitsui Chemicals, worth about 800 billion yen before the report, fell about 10% in Tokyo.

Same Demand, Higher Price

Meta drew the same depth of orders as in April and paid more for it. The reported JSR price is about 44% above what JIC paid, though no company has confirmed it. Mitsui held 217.8 billion yen of cash against 876.4 billion yen of debt at the end of June. An analyst tied the share drop to the funding a deal would need. Trading in Meta's new bonds and any word from JIC come next.

Crypto's road through Congress narrowed, and the road through regulators went to court.

A Democratic Congress dims the outlook for the Clarity Act, crypto's market-structure bill. It expires unless the current Congress passes it before Jan. 3.

A group whose members include Cboe (CBOE) and Citadel Securities sued to stop perpetual futures on U.S. stocks. The Capital Markets Alliance filed in Manhattan federal court Tuesday, the day the CFTC cleared the products. It argues they are security-based swaps that only the SEC can regulate. A CFTC spokesperson called the suit troubling. Cboe says its concern is investor protection, not competition. Kalshi began offering the contracts on four stocks Tuesday, and Coinbase (COIN) plans to follow.

Contested Either Way

If legislation stalls, crypto policy leans on agency approvals. The newest approval now faces a lawsuit from inside Wall Street. A Democratic Congress can also hold hearings and slow confirmations at both agencies. A ruling on the alliance's emergency request to halt trading, and Wednesday's fund flows, come next.

The Senate contracts followed the count, and the rate contract moved against bonds again.

Kalshi's Senate contract traded at 74 cents at 5:29 p.m. ET Tuesday, before the first polls closed. It reached 99.3 cents at 10:13 p.m. as results came in. Decision Desk HQ projected a Democratic majority about an hour later. Kalshi's rules allow early settlement on a consensus of media calls, and its contract settled "Yes" at 12:46 a.m. Polymarket's contract had resolved "Yes" by early Wednesday.

Kalshi's December rate-hike contract rose to about 78 cents overnight from 74 cents Tuesday afternoon, while Treasury yields fell. It was at 73 cents Friday, when the 2-year yield closed at its lowest since early September.

Polymarket's disputed Iran ceasefire contracts for Oct. 31 and Nov. 2 traded near 99.9 cents, with both still in review.

Tracked the Count

The Senate price rose 25 points in under five hours on results anyone could watch, then paid on the calls. It tracked the count rather than anticipating it. The hike contract has held near three in four on two days when short-term yields fell. An Iran buyer at 99.9 cents risks almost a dollar to make a tenth of a cent if a dispute goes against "Yes." Friday's jobs report and the dispute rulings come next.

Democrats took Congress, and the December hike contract rose as yields fell.

AMD and Supermicro guided higher while their cash lagged. Meta paid more for the same demand, and Mitsui's shareholders sold on a reported deal. Crypto's agency route met a lawsuit. The Senate contracts tracked the count and paid on the calls.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.