Graded on What Comes Next | The Bill Is in the Terms | Concentrated Exits | Settled by the Wording

Election Day opens with stock futures split and oil back up.

Wall Street's rally became a loss by the close. The S&P 500 fell 0.51% Monday after being up as much as 1.1%. The Nasdaq fell 1.07%, and the chip index 3.4%. Seoul's Kospi then fell 3.59%. At about 6:15 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq-100 futures were up about 0.4%. WTI crude was up about $1.70 near $98. It had fallen 7.4% Monday amid hopes for talks, before a report of a U.S. strike on Iran. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Monday near 4.89%. Bitcoin was near $77,000. Job openings data is due at 10 a.m., and AMD (AMD) reports after the close.

Polls close tonight.

Markets close first.

Apple and Palantir beat forecasts and traded lower before the open.

Apple (AAPL) said revenue rose 12% to $114.5 billion, above the roughly $113.4 billion expected. Earnings were $2.10 a share against an estimate of $1.99. Apple guided December-quarter gross margin to 45% to 46%, citing higher memory costs and the ramp of Siri AI. It also forecast services growth of 8% to 9%. The quarter's 47.9% margin included about one point from tariff refunds. The stock was near $324 in thin trading at about 6:15 a.m. ET, about 4% below Monday's close.

Palantir (PLTR) said revenue rose 96% to $2.31 billion and raised its 2026 forecast to about $8.53 billion. U.S. commercial revenue rose 148% and passed U.S. government revenue for the first time. Total contract value signed in the quarter rose only 6%. Remaining U.S. commercial deal value grew 4% from the prior quarter. The stock was near $165 in thin trading, about 7.5% below Monday's close.

Graded on What Comes Next

Both companies beat on the quarter just ended. The selling came as attention moved to the next one. Apple fell during its call as executives outlined a weaker margin outlook, Reuters reported. Palantir raised its forecast, but its revenue is outgrowing the contracts behind it. Tuesday's session and AMD's report tonight test how much the outlooks weigh.

Two companies showed what the terms of their money now say.

Oracle sold $10 billion of stock at $116 a share and $10 billion of notes paying 7% to 8.65%. The share price was 2.6% below Monday's close and 11.2% below the $130.67 its preliminary prospectus used. The lower price means about 86.2 million new shares, more than the 76.5 million first shown. The notes carry a weighted coupon of about 7.77%, or about $777 million a year. Oracle (ORCL) had pledged a $20 billion cap on Oct. 28.

An Outback Steakhouse franchisee filed for Chapter 11 owing about $320 million of secured debt, per first-day filings summarized in bankruptcy coverage. Out West Restaurant Group runs 61 Outbacks. Bloomin' Brands, which owns Outback, bid $26.3 million for its assets, subject to higher bids. Of the amount owed, about $190.9 million is accrued and capitalized interest, fees and other obligations. Goldman Sachs Specialty Lending Group is agent for the lenders.

The Bill Is in the Terms

Oracle got its full $20 billion, but at a lower share price and coupons of 7% to 8.65%. At Out West, accrued and capitalized interest, fees and other obligations make up about 60% of what is owed. The $26.3 million cash bid covers less than a tenth. Oracle's offerings settle Wednesday, and bids for Out West are due Dec. 8.

Crypto exits ran through narrower doors than the totals suggest.

U.S. spot bitcoin funds lost a net $398.6 million Monday. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone had $405.3 million of redemptions. That was its biggest daily outflow since June. About $1.04 billion has left the funds in two sessions. Coinbase (COIN) closed at $137.83 Monday after touching a 52-week low.

Binance began a second phase of withdrawals at 11 p.m. ET Monday. It covers dozens of smaller tokens and several dollar stablecoins. Net outflows from the exchange slowed to about $2.57 billion Monday from about $6.1 billion Sunday, per DefiLlama data.

Concentrated Exits

One fund's redemptions exceeded the whole group's net outflow. Flow data show redemptions, not who sold. Binance's outflows slowed before its long tail of tokens reopened. Phase two lets customers start moving balances held since the theft. Tuesday's fund flows and phase-two withdrawals show whether the exits widen.

A strike settled contracts that oil barely repriced.

Polymarket's ceasefire contracts for Nov. 8 and Nov. 15 collapsed after a report of a U.S. strike on Iran. They traded at 77.5 and 66.5 cents at 1:47 p.m. ET Monday, and 57 and 54 cents by 7:40 p.m. At 7:39 p.m., the Wall Street Journal reported a U.S. strike on Iran's Qeshm Island that day. By 7:50 p.m., the contracts were at 16.5 and 12 cents. Polymarket's records show both, and four other dates, resolved "No." U.S. officials told Reuters and the New York Times the strike was limited and defensive. Central Command did not comment. Brent rose about 0.5% in early Asian trade on the report, Reuters said.

Contracts for Oct. 31 and Nov. 2 are under dispute. They traded at 88.1 and 78.5 cents at 4:40 a.m. ET. The Journal reported the strike was the latest in a series of undisclosed ones. It gave no dates or targets for those.

Polymarket's Senate contract for Democrats was at 76.5 cents early Tuesday, up from 73.5 cents Monday afternoon. Kalshi's was at 76 cents. Polymarket counts runoffs, even those held after November. Kalshi's contract can settle early on a media consensus.

Settled by the Wording

The Iran payouts turned on whether a strike hit Iranian land, and when. A venue's resolution record is not an official account of the strike. The disputes ask whether earlier strikes count. The Senate contracts price control, not tonight's count, and a runoff could delay the answer. The dispute rulings and tonight's results come next.

Apple and Palantir beat, then fell as investors looked past the quarter.

Oracle and an Outback franchisee showed what money costs in the fine print. One fund drove the bitcoin outflow. A strike settled six ceasefire contracts, while Senate contracts wait on the count.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.