The Midterm Line Arrives. Six Contracts Cross It.

For weeks, traders priced Nov. 3 as a line. This week they cross it.

The Senate vote settles one contract outright. Iran's ceasefire ladder put its steepest step on the far side of the midterms. Israel's official count lands a day later, and two venues will read it by different rules.

Last week showed what a price is. Brazil's 81-cent favorite lost. A Lagarde contract paid on an announcement, not a departure.

This week asks which rule each price is waiting on.

Here are the six to watch.

Will Saturday's Iran Expiry Settle on Time?

CONTRACT: Polymarket's contract on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holding through Oct. 31.

CURRENT PROBABILITY: Near 91 cents early Friday, after a slide to 68 cents Thursday evening.

NEXT CATALYST: Settlement. The deadline passed Saturday.

EXACT RESOLUTION CONDITION: The contract turns No only on a qualifying U.S. strike on Iranian territory. Reports, briefings and letters do not count.

WHAT WOULD LIKELY REPRICE IT: Thursday's drop followed a Wall Street Journal report that the head of Central Command briefed President Trump on options. A briefing is not a strike. Only a confirmed U.S. strike before the deadline would change the answer.

FINANCIAL-MARKET IMPLICATION: A 91-cent price is not a settlement. The Oct. 22 contract took about three days and 13 status changes to pay Yes, and the Oct. 24 line was still unsettled Monday. Holders who need the cash wait on the process, not the price.

Is 72 Cents a Senate Forecast or a Senate Result?

CONTRACT: Polymarket's and Kalshi's contracts on Democratic control of the Senate.

CURRENT PROBABILITY: Polymarket near 72.5 cents and Kalshi near 71 cents Friday, each up 4 cents on the day.

NEXT CATALYST: Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3.

EXACT RESOLUTION CONDITION: Each pays on Democratic control of the Senate.

WHAT WOULD LIKELY REPRICE IT: Election-night counts in the closest races. Friday's rise had no matching news, and one 50,000-contract purchase on Kalshi came at 12:19 p.m. ET.

FINANCIAL-MARKET IMPLICATION: About seven in ten still leaves three in ten. Brazil's 81-cent favorite lost a week ago. Tuesday also tests the venues as businesses. Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $40 billion value days after Utah filed criminal charges against it.At Coinbase (COIN), prediction markets passed $200 million of annualized revenue.

What Happens to Nov. 8 Once the Midterms Pass?

CONTRACT: Polymarket's Iran ceasefire ladder, Nov. 8 and Nov. 15 expiries.

CURRENT PROBABILITY: Nov. 8 near 74.5 cents early Friday. Nov. 15 near 58.5 cents Thursday morning.

NEXT CATALYST: The Nov. 3 midterms, the line Trump drew on Oct. 8 when he said the U.S. would not attack Iran before them.

EXACT RESOLUTION CONDITION: Each contract turns No only on a qualifying U.S. strike on Iranian territory.

WHAT WOULD LIKELY REPRICE IT: The ladder's steepest step falls between Oct. 31 and Nov. 8, across the vote. Two diplomats told the Associated Press that allies were told to prepare for possible action after the midterms. Reports of a Vance letter to Tehran lifted Nov. 8, though Trump said it concerned medical supplies.

FINANCIAL-MARKET IMPLICATION: A popular reading treats warnings to allies as a decision. The contract waits for a strike. Nov. 15 still implies about a 41.5% chance of one. Brent is heading for a fourth straight monthly gain, so oil is already carrying part of that risk.

Does Israel's Official Count Close the Gap?

CONTRACT: Polymarket's and Kalshi's contracts on Israel's next prime minister.

CURRENT PROBABILITY: Polymarket had Benjamin Netanyahu near 40.5 cents and Gadi Eisenkot near 33 cents early Friday. Kalshi had Eisenkot at 17 cents and Netanyahu near 22 cents.

NEXT CATALYST: Israel's official results, Wednesday, Nov. 4.

EXACT RESOLUTION CONDITION: Kalshi asks who becomes prime minister following this election. Polymarket's contract carries over to a repeat election.

WHAT WOULD LIKELY REPRICE IT: The regular count is finished, with Netanyahu's bloc at 53 seats, short of 61. Coalition talks are the larger input. Signs of a repeat vote would likely widen the gap between venues.

FINANCIAL-MARKET IMPLICATION: The two prices are not a disagreement about the count. They answer different questions. Polymarket is also examining pre-close bets on Netanyahu. Its findings could tell traders how much of the earlier price reflected real demand. Israel's main ETF fell about 5% as the count came in.

Can a December Hike Survive a Bond Rally?

CONTRACT: Kalshi's December rate-hike contract.

CURRENT PROBABILITY: Near 73 cents Friday, down from 81 cents after Wednesday's decision.

NEXT CATALYST: The Treasury's quarterly refunding, Wednesday, Nov. 4.

EXACT RESOLUTION CONDITION: The contract pays only on a quarter-point hike at the December meeting.

WHAT WOULD LIKELY REPRICE IT: Warsh called inflation "too high" but made no commitment on December. Bond traders then bought Treasuries as if rates will fall, and the 10-year fell to about 4.93%. A heavier long-bond schedule at the refunding would test that rally.

FINANCIAL-MARKET IMPLICATION: The popular reading is "the Fed hikes in December." At 73 cents, the contract says about three in four. Borrowers are using the rally.Microsoft (MSFT) sought at least $25 billion of bonds, and orders peaked at $115 billion.

Is Mid-November a Date or a Direction?

CONTRACT: Polymarket's contracts on Russia-Ukraine talks by Nov. 30 and by year-end.

CURRENT PROBABILITY: Nov. 30 near 63 cents and year-end near 72 cents on Oct. 22.

NEXT CATALYST: A named date or venue. Kyiv says early November, and Moscow says around Nov. 10.

EXACT RESOLUTION CONDITION: Each pays only on an in-person meeting of the two sides, direct or mediated. Humanitarian-only talks do not count.

WHAT WOULD LIKELY REPRICE IT: A shared date and venue would test the gap of about 9 points between the November and year-end lines. A public split over terms would likely widen it.

FINANCIAL-MARKET IMPLICATION: "Talks resume" can mean envoy visits. Putin's meeting with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff would not have counted, because the two warring sides must meet. Russian supply is already in the oil story. Washington waived tariffs aimed at buyers of Russian crude.

Most of these prices were set around one date. Tuesday arrives, and only the Senate contract settles on it.

The rest wait on a strike, a coalition, a December vote or a meeting.

Crossing the line is not the same as resolving it.

Watch the Senate counts Tuesday night.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.