Ceasefire Cracks Overnight | Oil Rebounds Above $97 | Lebanon Shatters the Terms | The Route Premium Widens

Futures down after Wednesday's 2.5% rally. WTI bounced back above $97 on Hormuz confusion. Iran says three provisions breached. The one-session relief trade is already under pressure.

Stocks surged Wednesday on the ceasefire. The S&P gained over 2.5%. The Dow posted its best day since last spring. The Nasdaq climbed nearly 3%. WTI collapsed more than 15%. The VIX dropped over 16%. Industrials led the rally. Energy was the only sector to fall.

That tells you what the market was pricing. It was pricing the war ending, not oil stabilizing.

By evening, the cracks showed. Iran accused Israel of three violations. Stocks pulled back off session highs. Oil started climbing again. The late fade erased nearly a third of the day's gains.

Thursday futures slipped further. WTI jumped back above $97. The dollar edged higher near 99. Yields held steady around 4.3%. Gold pushed toward three-week highs.

The market priced resolution in one session. Now it is repricing doubt before the next one opens.

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The ceasefire is real. The terms are not settled.

Trump announced a two-week suspension of attacks late Tuesday. Iran accepted. Pakistan brokered the deal. The conditions required Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately.

Then the agreement fractured.

Israel launched its largest Lebanon strikes hours after the truce. Over 250 people were killed in one day. Israel called it "Operation Eternal Darkness." Netanyahu said Lebanon is not covered. Iran said it is. Pakistan, the mediator, agreed with Iran.

That dispute controls the Strait.

Iran's parliament speaker cited three breaches on day one. Iranian media reported tanker traffic suspended. The White House denied the closure. Lloyd's List tracked only three ships through Hormuz since the announcement.

The PM edition flagged "coordination required." Overnight, coordination collapsed. Polymarket shows Hormuz normalization by end of April near 25%. Conflict-ending odds by late June sit at 85%. That spread captures the whole story. The crowd is buying direction. It is not buying speed.

The ceasefire transferred the headline. It did not transfer the route.

The Fracture Window

The deal assumed a two-week runway. The first violation came in hours. The limiting variable shifted. The Lebanon clause must hold for Islamabad talks to matter. If it breaks, the runway disappears.

WTI crashed over 15% Wednesday to close near $94. That was the largest single-day drop since early 2020. By Thursday it climbed back above $97. Hormuz doubt and a Saudi pipeline strike drove the bounce.

The paper market moved in one session. The physical market needs weeks.

Jet fuel shortages persist. Supply chains remain damaged. Airline executives say relief is months away. Delta already pulled back growth plans before the truce. The ceasefire stopped the shooting. It did not restart the tankers.

Shipping logistics tell the same story. Rerouted cargo cannot snap back overnight. Insurance premiums for Gulf passage remain elevated. Refinery inputs are still constrained.

Polymarket captures the split. Odds of WTI below $90 this month sit near 65%. Odds of $120 sit around 35%. That is not a settled market. That is two regimes priced side by side.

The Paper-Physical Split

 Oil repriced the truce faster than tankers can transit. The physical bottleneck remains. The $94 close assumes three ships per day is temporary. If it is not, the bounce has room to run.

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The FOMC minutes reinforced a hawkish hold. Officials discussed hikes as recently as March. War-driven energy costs pushed inflation higher. The committee stayed divided. The same shock could also weaken growth. That tension kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.

Kalshi prices a Fed hold this month at 97%. Nearly $19M in volume backs that conviction. Polymarket shows 98%. Rate cuts in 2026 remain a minority bet. Around 35% price zero cuts this year.

Friday's CPI arrives into that freeze. One session of lower oil changes the forward picture. It does not erase what March already locked in.

DHS funding by next month sits at 46% on Kalshi. The shutdown crossed 75 days at 65% odds. Tariffs this month price at 87%.

None of these caused the ceasefire doubt. All of them narrow the response if it deepens.

The Constraint Stack

The Fed cannot cut into an oil shock. Congress cannot fund a cushion mid-shutdown. The toolkit is thinner than Wednesday assumed. CPI Friday will test that assumption directly.

The easiest read is that Lebanon is separate. Netanyahu said so. Trump called it "a separate skirmish." Vice President Vance called the disagreement a "legitimate misunderstanding."

The prediction markets do not treat it as a misunderstanding.

Polymarket prices conflict-ending odds by late June at 85%. Hormuz normalization by end of April sits near 25%. That gap exists for one reason. Lebanon controls whether Iran stays in the deal.

Iran's 10-point plan includes all fronts, including Lebanon. The IRGC warned it will respond if strikes continue. Tehran says the framework was already breached. Tasnim reported Iran is assessing whether to exit the deal entirely.

The route premium the PM edition tracked survived the ceasefire. It now has a specific trigger. The trigger is not a new escalation. It is a clause dispute baked into the original terms.

The Lebanon Variable

The ceasefire is priced as bilateral. The breach risk is trilateral. Lebanon is not a sideshow. It is the clause that controls whether Hormuz reopens or recloses.

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Vance heads to Islamabad this weekend for direct talks. CPI lands Friday. The market priced the war out of equities. It did not price it out of oil.

The gap between conflict-ending odds and Hormuz odds widened overnight. It did not narrow. That is the same spread the PM edition flagged. It grew instead of closing.

Wednesday priced the best case. Thursday tests whether it survives the week.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.