Ceasefire Ends | Oil Jumps | Yields Rise | The Minutes the Strait Just Repriced

Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was over. Global futures sold off. Dow futures are down 450 points. S&P futures are lower by 0.60%. Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.85%.

Europe joined the move. The Stoxx 600 slid 1.46%, with oil and gas the only shelter.

Asia sold harder. Japan's Nikkei fell 2.11%. South Korea's Kospi dropped 5.35% and entered a bear market. Samsung and SK Hynix fell again as the chip selloff spread.

Oil did the rest. WTI jumped more than 6% to $74.83. Brent rose near 6% to $78.64.

The market is no longer pricing a noisy ceasefire. It is pricing no ceasefire.

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Trump said he no longer wants to deal with Iran and called talks a waste of time. The comments followed U.S. strikes on Iran after three commercial vessels were attacked near Hormuz.

U.S. Central Command called the tanker attacks a ceasefire violation. Iran called the U.S. response a gross violation of last month's memorandum.

The threat level for ships crossing Hormuz is now severe. The U.S. also withdrew Iran's oil waiver.

Prediction markets moved with the tape. Hormuz normal by July 31 fell to 5%. August 31 sits at 19%. December 31 is 57%.

The Ceasefire Break

The peace track is no longer the base case. The Strait is back to being the input that can reset oil, rates, and Fed patience in one session.

The 10-year rose above 4.58%. The 2-year climbed above 4.21%. The 30-year held above 5%. The latest 30-year mortgage rate sits at 6.57%.

That is the bond market pricing inflation risk, not growth comfort.

July no-change still leads at 76%. But the hike tail moved. A 25 basis point hike now sits at 22.3%. A cut sits below 1%.

The June jobs miss bought the Fed room to wait. Oil is now testing how much of that room survives.

Warsh's first minutes as chair land today. Traders want to know whether the committee shares his Sintra line that prices are still too high.

The Minutes Test

Weak jobs lowered the front-end heat. Higher oil brings it back through inflation. The minutes now read less like history and more like a policy map.

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Trump is in Turkey for the summit as Ukraine asks for more air defense after Russia struck Kyiv with missiles and hundreds of drones. Zelenskyy wants more support. Trump is pressing allies to move faster on defense spending.

NATO members already agreed to move toward 5% of GDP by 2035. The Trump team wants speed, not promises.

That matters because defense spending means deficits, orders, supply chains, and pressure on European budgets.

The same morning oil jumped, Europe had to price war risk, energy risk, and fiscal risk at once.

The Defense Bill

The summit is not just geopolitics. It is another inflation and deficit question landing on the same day as Fed minutes.

The first is the chip reset. Samsung beat and fell. SK Hynix fell again. The Kospi moved into a bear market. Investors are asking whether AI earnings can still clear the bar.

The second is policy. Kalshi traders see less than a 30% chance that the U.S. government takes a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic this year, even after reports that OpenAI floated a 5% stake for Washington.

The U.S. already took a 10% stake in Intel (INTC). Traders do not think that model moves quickly to frontier AI.

Kalshi also shows a cooler Nasdaq-100 path. Traders place roughly 50-50 odds that the index ends 2026 above 30,000, but show less confidence above 32,000.

The AI Ceiling

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Prediction markets are narrowing the week.

U.S.-Iran talks by July 17 sit at 21%. July 31 sits at 49%. The market sees talks possible later, but not soon enough to fix this morning's tape.

World Cup markets moved into the background after the U.S. exit. But sports volume still matters because it turned prediction markets into real liquidity venues.

Now the geopolitical contracts are carrying the signal.

Hormuz at 5% for July is not just an odds quote. It is the market saying the route will not normalize before the next CPI print.

The Signal Shift

Sports built the volume. Hormuz is building the macro signal. Today only one moves oil.

Every relief trade now needs new proof.

Oil relief needs ships moving without attacks. That proof is missing.

Fed patience needs inflation to cool. A 6% oil jump makes that harder.

Tech leadership needs AI earnings to clear a high bar. Samsung did not.

The Nasdaq-100 needs a second-half breakout. Kalshi says the market is not convinced.

The OpenAI stake story adds another layer. AI is strategic enough for government interest, but traders do not expect direct ownership this year.

The Broken Proof

Monday priced patience. Tuesday tested it. Wednesday asks whether the proof is still there. Right now, the Strait says no.

Fed minutes land into an oil shock.

What is priced: July no-change, no fast Iran talks, Hormuz not normal in July, and a cooler second half for the Nasdaq-100.

What is not priced: WTI staying above $75, Brent holding near $80, the July hike tail moving higher, NATO spending turning fiscal, or chip weakness spreading beyond memory.

The morning question is simple.

Can the Fed minutes calm a market that oil just repriced?

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.