Ceasefire Lands | Oil Crashes | Yields Fall | What "Coordination Required" Actually Means

WTI crashed overnight. Equities surged globally. Hormuz normalization by end of April sits at 40%. The war premium compressed. The route premium didn't follow.

WTI crashed overnight to near $95. That was the sharpest single-session drop in nearly six years.

Equities surged globally in response. The Nikkei led Asia higher. South Korea's Kospi posted its biggest single-day gain in months. S&P 500 futures surged before the open. Gold slipped as safe-haven demand unwound. The dollar eased.

Treasury yields fell. The VIX compressed. The surface looks like resolution.

Pakistan brokered the deal hours before the deadline. Trump suspended bombing for two weeks. Iran's FM confirmed: safe passage through the Strait requires "coordination with Iran's Armed Forces."

That phrase is load-bearing. The guns stopped. The terms didn't move.

Two trades were priced apart on Tuesday: diplomacy and access. The ceasefire cleared the first. Today is about whether the second followed.

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The ceasefire is real. What it says is specific.

Iran's FM accepted the two-week pause with a condition. Safe passage through Hormuz requires "coordination with Iran's Armed Forces" and "due consideration of technical limitations."

That is managed access. Not free navigation.

The PM's Tuesday thesis held exactly here. Ceasefire odds and normalization odds were always priced as separate contracts. The ceasefire resolved one. Polymarket shows Hormuz normalization by end of April at 40%, down from highs earlier this week. Kalshi shows the same window at 45%. The ceasefire spiked both readings. The FM's language pulled them back.

Polymarket's end-of-May normalization sits at around 65%, well above the April read. The market is buying the trend. It is not buying the timeline.

The gap between ceasefire and normalization is the surviving trade.

The Real Constraint

The FM's language preserved Tehran's control over the valve. It didn't transfer it. Polymarket's Hormuz normalization odds spiked on the headline, then receded on the language. That spread is where the route premium lives. The strait's operating terms are still Tehran's to set.

WTI near $95 is the biggest shift in the forward inflation picture since the war began.

Treasury yields fell as oil dropped. Rate cut odds began to move. Kalshi holds the April Fed decision at 98% for a hold. The Fed doesn't reprice on a single overnight oil print.

Friday's March CPI was locked before the ceasefire. Six weeks of a closed strait is already in the data. BofA expects the print to show initial war effects, with core running near a 3% annualized rate. Glenmede estimates the supply shock adds roughly 0.8% to inflation over the next year. That estimate doesn't evaporate with the ceasefire. Kalshi prices WTI above $120 by year-end at around 60%, even after the overnight crash.

The Lag

The ceasefire arrived two days before the CPI. March measures a world that still exists in the numbers even if it no longer exists on the map. The forward picture improved overnight. Friday's print is the inheritance from the six weeks that came before. One oil session doesn't move a pinned Fed.

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Delta (DAL) reports before the bell this morning. It is the first major airline into Q1 with the full war-period jet fuel environment baked in. Delta's cost structure through the Hormuz closure sets the template. It absorbed six weeks of the largest supply disruption in market history.

Shell (SHEL) fell sharply pre-market. The integrated energy sector is repricing the war premium out. Defense names are seeing the same rotation. Capital that held the conflict hedge is moving fast.

Asian EM currencies found partial relief. The Korean won and Indian rupee had fallen to record or multi-year lows during the closure. The reopening narrative is doing work there before physical flows confirm it.

DHS funding remains unresolved. Kalshi prices resolution before May 1 at 44%, before April 22 at 24%. These aren't the same risk as the ceasefire clock. They compress into the same two weeks.

Capital Moves First

Capital is leaving the sectors that held the war premium. The question is whether the access trade is settled enough to absorb it. The sectors are repricing a settlement. The strait hasn't confirmed one yet.

Bloomberg counted 800 vessel still trapped this morning. Maersk is cautious despite the ceasefire. The physical market doesn't automatically follow the diplomatic headline.

Tuesday's PM made the structural point: Iran was building managed access, not restoring free navigation. That architecture survived the ceasefire intact. The FM's language confirms it. Coordination rights mean Tehran controls what moves through and when. Reuters reported physical crude surged far beyond futures during the closure. Some grades neared $150. The ceasefire compresses futures. It doesn't automatically close the physical premium.

Polymarket prices the conflict ending by June 30 at around 85%. Kalshi prices a nuclear deal before 2027 at 55%. Both are durable resolution scenarios. But end-of-April Hormuz normalization sits at 40% on Polymarket and 45% on Kalshi. Two different horizons. Two different odds. The market's own contract structure tells the story.

Control Sets the Price

The ceasefire transferred the fighting. It didn't transfer control of the route. Whoever controls coordination controls the premium. That premium doesn't clear until the operational terms do, not when the shooting stops.

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WTI below $100 for the first time in weeks. Equities in a relief rally. Two weeks to prove the access terms are real.

Friday's CPI prints into a market that priced the war out overnight. The data will measure the six weeks that came before. Kalshi's April Fed hold at 98% hasn't moved. Oil's crash opened a window. One session doesn't shift a pinned central bank.

The ceasefire window ends just as the next pricing test arrives. Tanker traffic data is the metric that matters most, not the headline odds. The limiting variable is not whether peace holds. It is whether Hormuz operates or merely coordinates.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.