Ceasefire Nears Expiry | Oil Rebounds | Tanker Seizure Confirms the Shift | The Deadline That Holds the Market

The ceasefire may not extend past Wednesday. Oil rebounded sharply. The US seized an Iranian vessel. Polymarket is raising at a $15 billion valuation. The system is pricing the same clock.

Equities closed near highs. The S&P held above 7,100. The Nasdaq slipped slightly after its extended run. The Dow was flat.

The VIX rose back toward 19. The 10-year yield edged higher. Gold pulled back.

Oil moved the most. WTI climbed back toward $90 after Friday’s collapse.

That is the surface.

Underneath, the ceasefire is approaching its expiry.

Over the weekend, Iran reversed its brief reopening of the Strait. Tankers were targeted. Insurance did not clear. Transit slowed again.

The US escalated. Marines boarded an Iranian vessel. The blockade shifted from signal to enforcement.

Today added another layer.

Trump signaled the ceasefire is unlikely to extend beyond Wednesday. Talks may still happen. Iran may still send negotiators. But the timeline is now fixed.

Markets are holding because the clock is still open.

The rally sits on time. Not resolution.

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The ceasefire is no longer a framework. It is a deadline.

Trump said the US is not under pressure to extend the truce. He warned strikes could target Iranian infrastructure if talks fail. Bridges. Power plants.

Iran signaled it may still attend talks. At the same time, officials called US demands excessive. Participation is not confirmed.

The US already acted. It seized an Iranian vessel after attacks on commercial ships. That was the first direct enforcement of the blockade.

The escalation is not theoretical anymore.

Prediction markets reflect that shift.

Polymarket shows a peace deal by April 22 near 18%. By April 30, 36%. By May 31, 57%. By June 30, 70%.

The curve is steep.

The market is still pricing resolution. It pushed the timing further out.

The deadline compresses that curve.

The Expiry Clock

This is no longer about whether a deal happens. It is about whether it happens before the clock runs out. The market is pricing delay. The calendar is pricing a decision.

Oil completed a full round trip in less than three sessions.

Friday priced reopening. WTI dropped more than 10%.

Saturday reversed it. Tanker attacks resumed. The Strait closed again in practice.

By Monday, oil traded back near $90.

The move was mechanical.

The physical system never normalized. Only a handful of ships passed during the brief opening. Insurance did not clear. Routes did not reset.

The market priced the headline. Then it repriced the system.

The same structure holds now.

Polymarket shows Strait normalization by end of April near 28%. That number collapsed over the past week.

The physical constraint moved past April.

Oil now trades inside a range that includes both outcomes.

The Physical Floor

The physical system set the range. The deadline now compresses it. Any move toward Friday’s lows requires confirmation the system never delivered.

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The Fed is still frozen. Kalshi shows the April hold at 99%. June sits above 90% for no change. Oil’s rebound removes any near-term easing case.

The shutdown continues. Probabilities for 100 days remain near even. Fiscal drag stays embedded.

A new signal entered today.

Polymarket is in talks to raise $400 million at a $15 billion valuation. Total funding could approach $1 billion with additional investors.

That matters for how markets process information.

Prediction markets are no longer a niche signal. They are becoming a core layer of price discovery. Volumes are expanding rapidly. Institutional interest is rising.

The same platform pricing the ceasefire is now attracting large-scale capital.

That tightens the feedback loop.

The probabilities are not just reflections. They are inputs.

The Convergence Window

The Fed, fiscal policy, the Strait, and now the structure of how markets price events are all compressing into the same window. When the platforms pricing the ceasefire attract institutional capital at scale, the probabilities feed back into the positions they describe. That loop is tightening.

The market is no longer trading the ceasefire. It is trading the expiry.

Equities are still anchored near highs. They are pricing extension or resolution.

Oil is moving differently. It is pricing interruption risk into every session.

Prediction markets show both.

Polymarket’s curve pushes resolution into June. Kalshi shows nuclear deal probabilities rising into summer.

The market is buying direction. It is not buying timing.

The deadline forces timing.

The new detail matters.

The US seizure of an Iranian vessel confirms enforcement is active. Iran’s signals on talks remain conditional. Trump’s language removed urgency from the US side.

That combination shifts the distribution.

The risk is no longer a slow delay. It is a sharp binary.

The Deadline Gap

The market is pricing a path. The deadline is pricing a decision. Equities assume the path holds. Oil is anchored to the decision. The spread between them is now driven by time, not probability.

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The structure changed. The surface has not.

Equities are still near highs. Oil is still below peak levels. The Fed is still frozen.

What changed is the clock.

The ceasefire expires this week. Trump signaled no automatic extension. Iran has not confirmed participation in talks.

The US already enforced the blockade.

Prediction markets are pushing resolution further out. Capital is flowing into the platforms that price those outcomes.

What is priced: eventual resolution, delayed timelines, stable equities.

What is not: a missed deadline.

The system now runs on a binary.

Extension holds the range. Failure resets it.

Capital moved early. The clock did not.

The gap between the two is worth watching.