Deal Rally Lands | Oil Breaks $81 | SpaceX Extends | The Peace That Still Needs Delivery

Stocks surged as the Iran deal locked in. Oil fell below $81. SpaceX kept rising. Hormuz odds still show the physical lag.

The Nasdaq surged 3%. The S&P rose 1.78%. The Dow gained 608 points. The VIX fell 8.6% to 16.16.

Oil dropped 4.72% to $80.87. The 10-year yield eased to 4.47%. Gold jumped 2.48%. The euro rose.

That is the surface.

Underneath, the market finally priced the deal as real.

Polymarket puts a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by June 15 at 96%. June 30 sits near 99%. The agreement is in review across the curve.

But Hormuz tells a slower story. Normal traffic by end of June sits at 22%. July 31 is 63%.

The war ended on paper. The strait has not cleared in price.

The Fed meets in 48 hours. Zero cuts this year sit near 72%. Relief did not open the rate path.

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U.S. officials said the memorandum was signed by Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. Trump said the full text will be released after a formal signing ceremony Friday.

The deal includes the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the U.S. blockade on Iran. It extends the ceasefire for a 60-day negotiation period. The hard issues now move to that window.

The nuclear program remains the center. Sanctions relief is tied to preventing Iran from rebuilding its nuclear capacity. Verification is the key.

Lebanon is the open risk. Israel said it will keep a southern Lebanon buffer zone and preserve freedom of action against Hezbollah. Hezbollah welcomed the deal. Iran said Israeli attacks on Lebanon must stop.

The market priced peace. The region still needs proof.

The Delivery Gap

A signed MOU ends the war phase. It does not settle Lebanon, verification, or ships moving through Hormuz. The deal is real. The delivery is still ahead.

WTI fell below $81. That is the clearest market signal from the agreement. Three months of war premium came out fast.

But the decline also creates a new question. How much of the cost chain can reverse?

CPI still sits at 4.2%. PPI sits at 6.5%. Both reflect the war cost already loaded into the system. Fuel, freight, insurance, chemicals, and inputs do not reset in one session.

That is why the Fed path stayed locked. Kalshi prices exactly zero cuts in 2026 at 71.9%. One cut sits at 21.9%. Two cuts sit below 8%.

The June Fed decision is not the issue. Warsh will hold. The issue is what the dot plot says about the second half.

The Inherited Bill

The war ended before the FOMC. The data did not. Warsh inherits the peace headline and the inflation bill in the same meeting.

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After rising 19% on Friday, shares gained more than 6% early Monday and traded near $171.04. The company’s value stayed above $2 trillion. Trading value topped $7.2 billion by mid-morning, more than Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) combined in the same window.

Retail demand was strong. Investors bought $117.6 million of shares on Friday, beating the prior IPO-day retail record set by Coinbase (COIN) in 2021.

Index flows add another layer. SpaceX is expected to enter the Nasdaq-100 by fast track. FTSE Russell inclusion comes June 26. MSCI inclusion comes June 29. Jefferies estimates FTSE Russell could bring $2.68 billion of passive inflows.

But Mars is not priced the same way.

Kalshi gives SpaceX only an 18% chance of launching a crewed Mars mission by 2030. That contract has never traded above 25%.

The Mega-Cap Split

Public markets are buying SpaceX as infrastructure. Prediction markets are not buying the Mars timeline. The stock trades the platform. The contract trades the promise.

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It was a timing rally.

Oil moved first because it can. Stocks followed because lower oil lowers inflation fear. SpaceX held because passive flows and retail demand create a buyer base. 

But the slower pieces remain.

Hormuz has to move from 22% by June to actual traffic. The Fed has to decide how much old inflation matters now that the war is over. SpaceX has to turn a $2 trillion value into operating proof. Salesforce has to show AI agents add revenue rather than replace seats.

The same word ties it together: delivery.

The Timing Gap

Markets priced the end of the shock. They have not priced the full unwind. Peace, oil, AI agents, and SpaceX all need execution after the headline.

Oil fell below $81. Stocks ripped higher. The VIX collapsed. SpaceX stayed above $2 trillion. Iran deal odds moved above 96%.

What is priced: peace, lower oil, zero June Fed action, SpaceX index flows, and AI software consolidation.

What is not priced: Hormuz still at 22% for June, Lebanon breaking the ceasefire, PPI staying at 6.5%, or AI agents pressuring software margins.

The war ended. The delivery phase started.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.