Deal Signed at Versailles | Oil Hits 3-Month Low | Yields Hold Post-Fed | The Discount That Hasn't Arrived

Futures jumped after Trump signed the Iran MOU at Versailles. S&P contracts rose over half a percent. Nasdaq futures climbed more than 1%.

But the prior session told a different story. The Nasdaq fell 1.3%. The S&P dropped 1.2%. The 2-year yield jumped 16 basis points.

Oil fell below $75 for the first time since March. Gold slipped and the VIX held near 18.

The peace dividend arrived in oil. The rate path stayed locked.

Markets close Friday for Juneteenth. Today is the last session of the week.

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Trump signed the deal at Versailles during dinner with Macron. The White House confirmed the pact is now in effect.

Pakistan said Hormuz will reopen and the blockade ends. Iran agreed to clear the waterway at no charge for 60 days.

But shipping firms are cautious. Mine clearance could take weeks. Mitsui warned tankers may wait longer. Hapag-Lloyd said four ships may try this weekend.

WTI dropped to $74 and Brent slipped below $78. The IEA warned of a coming glut. Supply may grow by 8 million barrels a day. Demand grows by only 2 million.

Over 100 oil-laden ships sit in the Gulf. Polymarket puts Hormuz normal by end of June at under 20%.

The deal removed the political barrier. The physical one remains.

The deal ended the war on paper. The strait still has mines in the water. The supply glut the IEA described needs a clear channel. Signed is not shipped. The price moved but the cargo hasn't.

The dot plot shifted higher. The year-end rate forecast rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. Several officials penciled in a hike.

Warsh said the Fed should stop giving forward guidance. He withheld his own dot.

Polymarket puts July no-change above 80%. A hike sits near 15%. Kalshi prices zero cuts in 2026 near 80%.

CPI sits at 4.2% and PPI is near 6.5%. Both printed during the war. Oil has since fallen 40% from its peak. That relief hasn't hit the data yet.

The Fed sees what has printed. The market sees what is coming.

The committee reads May. The market reads October. Lower oil helps Q4 but does not erase Q2. The Fed set its path from a wartime ledger. The peace dividend needs a new page.

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Accenture (ACN) reports before the bell. The quarter tests if AI bookings convert to real revenue. The stock sits 46% below its high. Analysts expect around $18.8 billion.

Kroger (KR) prints the same morning. Same-store sales will show what shoppers paid during the war.

Jobless claims and Philly Fed land at 8:30 AM. Both measure a labor market the Fed just refused to ease.

Markets close Friday for Juneteenth. Every print today gets carried into a three-day gap.

The signals share no sector. They share a window. Each tests a different face of the same economy.

Three inputs land on the last session. The Fed removed its guide. Fresh data meets 72 hours of dark. Monday reprices what Thursday revealed.

Lower oil should ease inflation. That is the theory. The problem is when.

The CPI on the Fed's desk was printed during the war. The next reading will capture post-deal energy costs. That print lands in mid-July.

The next Fed meeting is late July. For five weeks the market carries both signals. A hawkish hold and a falling commodity.

The limiting variable is not the deal. It is the lag between the oil drop and the data print.

Warsh removed the compass. No forward guidance and no median dot. The market has to carry five weeks of doubt alone.

The deal lowered the input. The Fed hasn't seen the output. Five weeks separate the oil crash from the data print. Relief needs a page the calendar hasn't turned.

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The deal ended the war. The inflation it caused hasn't been revised. The Fed set its path from a wartime ledger. The market trades a peacetime tape.

Both are right on different clocks. Today is the last session before a long weekend.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.