Five Waves. Half a Point. | Kuwait Burning | Bonds Still Refusing | The Price of Getting Used to War

Iran fired five waves of missiles overnight. S&P futures fell ~0.6%. That gap is the only number that matters today.

Five waves of missiles left Iran overnight.

Kuwait Airport's fuel tank caught fire. Iran's FM went on state TV. His message was simple: no talks. No plans for any.

S&P futures slipped.

That's it. That's the whole reaction.

VIX near 27. Brent pushing back toward $100. The 10-year yield at ~4.42%. Gold still bid.

Five missile waves. Futures barely moved. The market isn't pricing the war anymore. It's pricing routine. That's more dangerous than uncertainty.

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Yesterday we closed with one line.

The plan opened a path. It didn't close the gap.

Overnight, Iran answered.

Five missile waves in two hours. A direct hit on Kuwait Airport's fuel storage. Fire visible from the city. And FM Araghchi, on state TV, in plain language: no talks have happened. None are planned.

That's not a rejection of the terms. That's a rejection of the table.

The five-day postponement window is still technically open. Trump gave Iran until Saturday. And Iran is using that time to keep firing.

Looking at the markets, Polymarket ceasefire odds are at 44% by April 30. That's down from 49% on Monday when the plan first circulated. The slope still runs — 59% by May, 65% by June. But it's flattening fast. Iranian military action against Israel today: 97%. That contract has paid out every single day this week.

Investor Signal

44% by April is a coin flip. If Saturday passes without progress, the corridor breaks — and it breaks upward.

Equities bought the plan Monday. Bonds didn't. Two days later, bonds still haven't moved.

Tuesday's 2-year Treasury auction came in weak. Yields spiked 11 basis points on the result. The 10-year closed at ~4.42%. Gold stayed bid the whole time.

A plan moving through Pakistani intermediaries doesn't fix inflation. A five-day pause doesn't reopen the Strait. And oil doesn't normalize on a document Iran already called "maximalist and unreasonable." Those are two separate problems.

Kalshi has the April Fed hold at 94%. Polymarket agrees at 95%. But zoom out. Polymarket now prices a 28% chance of zero cuts all year. A 3% hike probability is showing up in April contracts on Kalshi. Small number. But two weeks ago it was zero.

Bonds are pricing the lag. Equities are pricing the plan. One of them is wrong.

Investor Signal

The 10-year at ~4.42% is not a relief trade. It's a warning. And it's been running for days.

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Three separate pressures. One window. All landing at the same time.

Private credit. Apollo's $15B fund just got hit with redemption requests at twice its quarterly cap. Apollo is holding the 5% limit. Investors who wanted out are getting roughly 45 cents on the dollar. Shares have lost nearly a quarter of their value this year. This isn't showing up in VIX. It shows up in quarterly redemption windows. Stress is moving from public markets into private credit. Quietly. Slowly. Now visibly.

The consumer. Kalshi puts gas above $3.99 this week at 82%. Above $4.00 by April 1: 70%. CPI above 3.2% in March: 73%. Those numbers were built for a different energy environment. The war is in its fifth week.

The labor market. Jobless claims land this morning. Expected near 205,000 — low layoffs, frozen hiring. The number itself probably doesn't move markets. But the postponement window expires Saturday. If nothing changes, a $93–$100 oil environment doesn't stay out of the claims data for long. Tech layoffs exceeding 2025 levels: 85% on Kalshi.

Investor Signal

Three different markets. Three different signals. All saying the same thing: the geopolitical pressure has already moved into the domestic structure. It's just traveling at different speeds.

The corridor held overnight. WTI near $93–$94. Kalshi: 67% odds WTI stays at or above $93 today. Polymarket: 79% chance crude clears $95 by end of March. Only 37% for $100.

That's the range. But corridors only hold as long as their constraints do.

The floor is the postponement. While the window is open, an immediate spike stays off the table. The ceiling is the Strait. Polymarket puts Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of April at just 33%. Two-thirds of the market doesn't think the physical constraint clears by month-end.

The expiration is Saturday.

One more number. WTI above $130 by end of year: 54% on Kalshi. That's not a peace scenario. That's the market pricing war through December.

Investor Signal

Markets are pricing the window. Not the outcome. That works until Saturday. After that, one side of this trade is wrong.

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Five waves of missiles overnight. Futures barely moved.

That used to be a crisis. Now it's a Thursday open.

Bonds saw this coming. The 10-year at 4.42% isn't a relief price. Apollo's redemption cap isn't a confidence signal. Gas above $4 by April 1 is Kalshi's base case. Not a tail risk.

Equities absorbed all of it.

The window expires Saturday. Iran's FM says there are no talks. Polymarket says there's a 97% chance strikes continue today.

The corridor held. The clock didn't pause.

When the window closes, one of these markets will have been right.