Dow futures jumped near 300 points on a 60-day Hormuz framework. Oil fell near 5% to below $92. Polymarket prices the deal at 8% today.
THE DAILY PULSE
The surface looks like a clean Hormuz deal.
Dow futures jumped near 300 points overnight. The S&P added near 0.6%.
The Nasdaq added near 1%. Oil sank near 5% to below $92.
The 10-year yield dropped over 7 basis points to 4.50%. Gold edged higher.
The dollar held steady.
A 60-day framework emerged Sunday. The same evening, US forces struck missile sites near Bandar Abbas.
Friday's record Dow close sits one session behind. The deal lifted everything overnight.
The variables that decide whether it holds land this week.
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THE LEAD SIGNAL
Reports of a 60-day framework emerged Sunday.
Iran allows ship traffic through Hormuz. The US lifts its naval blockade.
Uranium and sanctions move into a 60-day negotiation window.
Trump opened a path on uranium. The stockpile could be destroyed at "another acceptable location" outside the US.
The same evening, CENTCOM struck missile launch sites at Bandar Abbas. Two IRGC vessels deploying mines were destroyed.
Netanyahu vowed to escalate against Hezbollah. Iran's deal terms require an inclusive ceasefire.
Carlyle's Jeff Currie told CNBC Asia is at "tank bottoms" already.
Europe is a month behind. The US reaches the limit by July.
Even immediate Hormuz reopening leaves a flow gap. Full oil traffic resumption takes two to three months.
Polymarket prices a near-term ceasefire announcement low. The contract sits near 10% by today and near 13% by tomorrow.
By month end, the line lands near 45%, down 10. Early June sits near 60%, up 10.
End of June holds near 80%. Over $6.9 million in volume backs the curve.
The shape says June, not May.
The Calendar Gap
The deal is real. The timeline isn't. Even immediate Hormuz reopening leaves the oil chain weeks behind the headline. Polymarket's curve loads conviction into June, not May. The rally bought a resolution the contract doesn't yet price. The relief arrived early. The repricing hasn't.
THE ARCHITECTURE
Kevin Warsh starts his first full week as Fed Chair.
He was sworn in Friday at the White House.
Headline inflation runs near 3.3%. Oil's recent surge has not cleared the system.
Core PCE printed near 3.2% in March. Thursday morning brings the April print.
The Q1 GDP revision lands the same hour.
Markets now price a December hike, not a cut. The dollar held one-month highs last week.
War worries and a resilient economy keep the greenback bid.
Kalshi shows zero cuts in 2026 near 63%. Exactly one cut sits at 16%.
Over $3.9 million in volume backs the line.
The rally needs cuts. Kalshi prices none.
The Inheritance
Warsh inherits the print, not the policy room. Thursday's PCE measures what the oil shock already moved through Q2. A new chair cannot reach data that already cleared. Positions built on cuts assume a Fed that hasn't met the print. Warsh's first signal lands inside the data, not ahead of it.
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THE CROSS-CURRENTS
Four sessions hold this week's binaries.
Wednesday brings enterprise earnings and chip reads. Salesforce (CRM) tests AI monetization.
Marvell (MRVL) tests chip demand.
Thursday delivers GDP, PCE, durable goods, jobless claims, and new home sales. All print between 8:30 and 10:00 ET.
The connective thread runs two tracks. Contracted AI demand on one.
Rate-sensitive cyclicals on the other.
A holiday compressed the calendar. The variables didn't shrink.
Each binary changes the read on every other.
The Stacked Window
The variables didn't move closer. The calendar moved closer to them. Compression doesn't make signals smaller. It makes each one weigh more. A miss anywhere in the stack pulls the rally toward Friday's close. The week front-loaded the optimism. The verdicts arrive after Wednesday's open.
THE FORETELL LENS
The relief is buying tomorrow. It cannot buy back yesterday.
The Q2 oil shock already moved through the system.
Tanks ran low. Refiners reformulated.
Procurement teams locked higher costs into contracts.
Energy costs cascaded into food, transport, and goods.
The deal stops the bleeding forward. It does not unwind the cost already absorbed.
Currie sees Asia at the floor today. Europe reaches the floor in a month.
The US gets there by July.
Polymarket prices end-of-June Hormuz normalization near 40%. Over $10 million in volume backs the line.
Oil's own market prices a slower path. The rally priced the headline.
Thursday's PCE measures what already happened. The deal does not reach back into the print.
The Already-Written Print
The deal solves the future. It cannot unwind the past. PCE Thursday measures the cost the system already paid. Positions built on a deal lowering Thursday's print confuse cause and effect. The relief runs forward. The print is locked.
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FINAL FRAME
Capital opened with the Hormuz framework priced as resolved. Wednesday brings Salesforce and Marvell.
Thursday brings the PCE print and the GDP revision.
The deal is in the rally. The verdict on the deal isn't.
Polymarket prices the announcement curve into June. Kalshi prices zero cuts at 63%.
The week's signals collide where the rally and the calendar meet.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
