Hormuz Hot | SK Hynix Adds Leverage | Strategy Cuts Bitcoin | The Week Leverage Meets a Higher Cost of Money.

The U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh strikes over the weekend. Iran said it hit U.S. military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, and Qatar. Bahrain reported sirens again Monday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it hit U.S. facilities in Bahrain and radar systems in Oman.

U.S. Central Command said American forces struck dozens of Iranian targets. The list included air-defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone assets, and small boats. CENTCOM also said the U.S. used one-way attack sea drones for the first time.

Oil moved higher. Brent traded near $78.14. WTI sat around $73.24.

That is the surface.

Underneath, the ceasefire is gone but the talk track is not. Trump said peace talks would continue. He also said the ceasefire was scrapped.

The market is not pricing peace. It is pricing talks under fire.

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The Strait normally handles about 20% of global oil traffic. Both sides now give different versions of whether it is open. Iran says it controls new shipping arrangements. The U.S. says it will keep commercial passage open.

Prediction markets moved further away from a near-term fix.

Hormuz traffic normal by July 31 sits at 3%. August 31 is 16%. December 31 is 61%.

Iran withdrawing from MOU talks by July 17 is 6%. July 24 is 12%. July 31 is 17%. August 15 is 24%.

A U.S. blockade by August 31 sits at 43%. By December 31 it is 55%.

The Strait Test

Traffic can move and still not be normal. That gap is now the oil premium.

The Fed held rates last month. The July 28-29 meeting may not be as clean.

Some officials now favor undoing last year’s cuts. Those cuts were made when labor risk looked worse. Now the labor market looks steadier, while inflation remains above target.

The problem is that inflation is not clean. It is coming from tariffs, energy disruption from the Iran war, and the AI investment boom.

That makes the Fed’s job harder. It cannot call all price pressure temporary. It also cannot crush demand if the shock is supply-led.

Polymarket prices July no-change at 76%. A 25 basis point hike sits at 22.1%. A cut is below 1%.

Kalshi shows exactly zero cuts in 2026 at 75.2%. One cut is 16.6%. Two cuts are 5.4%. The setup gets tested fast. CPI lands Tuesday morning. Warsh testifies before Congress Tuesday and Wednesday. Those are his first public appearances since Sintra.

The Hike Door

July is still a hold market. But the door is open. Warsh may wait for clearer inflation data, but the market is no longer dismissing a hike.

A shocking new plan was just introduced in Washington.  The idea is to celebrate Trump’s new “golden age” by placing him on the $100 bill.

As you’ll see, it has little to do with the new Crypto Reserve…

Or Trump’s ambitious plan for Artificial Intelligence…

Former Presidential Advisor, Jim Rickards says, “Trump’s crowning achievement will be much, much bigger.”

In the months ahead, he predicts, the government will release a massive multi-trillion-dollar asset which it has held back for more than a century. And this will give ordinary investors a chance to strike it rich.

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ETF issuers are preparing leveraged single-stock funds tied to SK Hynix (SKHY) after its U.S. debut. GraniteShares and ProShares are expected to launch products that let investors make bullish or bearish levered bets on the stock.

The demand makes sense. SK Hynix is one of the biggest winners from the AI memory boom. Its chairman said demand is “enormous.”

But the structure adds risk.

Single-stock 2x products can move fast in both directions. ETF experts warned that leverage is getting carried away. The issue is not whether the funds work as designed. It is whether investors understand how fast losses can build when everyone crowds into the same trade.

The Leverage Layer

AI scarcity pulled capital into SK Hynix. Now products are being built to multiply the same bet. That can deepen liquidity, or turn a pullback into a squeeze.

The company authorized up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin sales as part of a broader plan that also included a share repurchase program. It has already sold about $218 million of bitcoin this year to fund dividends and rebuild dollar reserves.

That matters because Strategy became the model for digital asset treasury firms.

Those companies worked when their stocks traded above the value of their crypto. That premium let them raise capital and buy more tokens.

Now the premium has faded. Many trade below net asset value. Strategy’s own mNAV fell below 1 late last month. Bitcoin is down as much as 33% this year.

Kalshi sees bitcoin at $62,500 or above Friday at 58%. $63,000 or above sits at 50%. $63,500 or above is 41%.

The Treasury Stress

The model works when equity trades rich. It strains when tokens fall, rates stay high, and investors stop paying a premium.

If you have any money in the stock market, you may want to pay attention.

New research points to a massive market-moving event that could send hundreds of popular stocks into a sudden free fall.

Holding the wrong stocks when this hits could erase years of gains.

That’s why analysts have now identified a list of stocks investors may want to avoid as this event unfolds.

If you want to see what’s coming, and which stocks could be most at risk.

Click here to get the full details before it’s too late.

Monday starts with one theme across three markets.

Leverage is meeting a higher cost of capital.

Hormuz is levered to oil. A small attack can move a large price.

SK Hynix is levered to AI memory. The trade is now getting single-stock ETF leverage on top.

Strategy (MSTR) is levered to bitcoin through its balance sheet. That worked when the premium existed. It gets harder when mNAV falls below 1.

The Fed sits over all of it.

A July hold is still the base case. But zero cuts in 2026 at 75.2% means the old duration tailwind is gone. CPI Tuesday and Warsh's testimony test how much of that base case survives the week.

World Cup odds sit in the background. France leads at 38.6%. Argentina is 18.8%. Spain is 16.8%. England is 16.0%.

The Leverage Test

Markets can handle risk. They struggle when the same risk gets layered across oil, ETFs, crypto treasuries, and rates.

The week opens with the Strait hot, the Fed less patient, and the AI trade more levered.

What is priced: July hold, no quick Hormuz normalization, SK Hynix demand, and bitcoin near the low $60,000s.

What is not priced: a U.S. blockade, oil holding near $80 Brent, Warsh using July to reverse cuts, or levered SK Hynix products turning volatility into a feedback loop.

The morning question is simple.

Can the market keep buying leverage while the cost of money rises? Tuesday's CPI is the first answer.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.