Trump says Iran wants a deal but may still restart the war. WTI holds above $74. Chip futures rebound. Fed minutes leave July open.
THE DAILY PULSE
The tape wants to bounce. The Strait will not let it relax.
Chips led the rebound. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF rose 1.8%. Micron (MU) gained 3.4%. Sandisk (SNDK) rose 2.4%.
Europe's chip tape joined it. ASML (ASML) rose 2.2%. BE Semiconductor gained 3.5%. STMicroelectronics (STM) added 4%.
SK Hynix jumped 5.3% ahead of its U.S. listing. Reuters said the deal was more than seven times oversubscribed.
That is the surface.
Underneath, the macro risk did not move.
Brent traded near $78.82. WTI sat near $74.29. The 10-year held near 4.57%. The 30-year stayed above 5%.
Tech is trying to repair. Oil is still setting the frame.
PREMIER FEATURE
As AI's demand for electricity explodes, Nvidia is making moves in a surprising new area.
The company recently partnered with Los Alamos National Laboratory and backed a project tied to the technology known as the "Energy Cube."
One tiny stock sits at the center and a major government catalyst arriving in August could bring it into the spotlight.
THE LEAD SIGNAL
Trump reopened the deal question without closing the war question.
Speaking aboard Air Force One, he said Iran called to make a deal after U.S. strikes. He also said it is unclear whether the two sides are heading back into full-scale war.
His warning was blunt. Every Iranian attack would be met with a much larger U.S. response. He said, "Every time they hit us, we're going to hit them 20."
CENTCOM said U.S. strikes were aimed at weakening Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in Hormuz. It said operations this week hit about 170 Iranian military targets.
Iran said it struck U.S. sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. Kuwait said one person was injured and that it intercepted or engaged one cruise missile, three ballistic missiles, and 10 drones.
The Deal Problem
Iran may want a deal. The market has to price whether it can trust one. Calls do not clear ships.
THE ARCHITECTURE
The Fed minutes left the path open.
Officials voted unanimously in June to hold rates at 3.5% to 3.75%. That was Warsh's first meeting as chair.
The minutes showed no clean view on what comes next. Some officials saw inflation cooling enough for rates to end the year within or below the current range. Others thought inflation could stay high enough to require rates above the current range.
The dot plot, which Warsh did not join, narrowly pointed to one hike this year, then a cut in each of the next two years.
That fits the market.
Polymarket prices July no-change at 83%. A 25 basis point hike sits at 17.6%. A cut sits below 1%.
The Minutes Split
The Fed is not guiding. It is waiting. That makes oil, CPI, jobs, and Hormuz the real policy statement.
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THE CROSS-CURRENTS
THE CROSS-CURRENTS
Hormuz still owns the inflation path.
Normally, about one-fifth of global oil and LNG passes through the Strait. Now traffic remains far below prewar levels.
The latest escalation came after attacks on three commercial vessels. The U.S. revoked Iran's oil-sales waiver. Iran called the strikes a violation of last month's memorandum.
Polymarket shows the same damage. U.S.-Iran peace talks by July 17 sit at 16%. By July 31, they rise to 46%.
A U.S. blockade on Iran by July 31 sits at 24%. August 31 is 37%. December 31 is 47%.
Those are not peace odds. They are pressure odds.
The Strait Clock
The market is no longer asking whether talks resume. It is asking whether shipping stays threatened while talks drag.
THE AI AND SEARCH LAYER
The chip rebound is real. It is also early.
Samsung beat and fell this week. SK Hynix sold off, then bounced ahead of a U.S. listing that is more than seven times oversubscribed. Micron, Sandisk, ASML, and STMicroelectronics are trying to recover.
The question is whether buyers still treat AI supply as scarce after Tuesday's selloff.
SK Hynix tests that directly. A large, oversubscribed U.S. listing says capital still wants memory exposure.
SpaceX (SPCX) entering the Nasdaq-100 tests the same risk from another side. Index demand can help. It cannot fix valuation if the macro tape turns.
Alphabet (GOOGL) got a different proof point. Google Search hit its highest usage in history after Argentina beat Egypt in the World Cup. The top search was "argentina vs egypt." Alphabet still controls about 90% of search.
The Supply Test
AI still has buyers. Search still has scale. The question is whether both can hold while oil and rates move against the tape.
PARTNER SPOTLIGHT
Congress to feature Trump on $100 Bill?
A shocking new plan was just introduced in Washington. The idea is to celebrate Trump’s new “golden age” by placing him on the $100 bill.
As you’ll see, it has little to do with the new Crypto Reserve…
Or Trump’s ambitious plan for Artificial Intelligence…
Former Presidential Advisor, Jim Rickards says, “Trump’s crowning achievement will be much, much bigger.”
In the months ahead, he predicts, the government will release a massive multi-trillion-dollar asset which it has held back for more than a century. And this will give ordinary investors a chance to strike it rich.
THE FORETELL LENS
Thursday starts with three tests.
The first is trust. Trump says Iran called. Iran says the U.S. violated the deal. The market has to decide which side matters more for shipping.
The second is patience. The Fed minutes show no clear path. July no-change is still the base case, but a 17.6% hike tail is not dead.
The third is supply. Chips are rebounding, but Samsung showed that strong numbers may not be enough. SK Hynix now tests whether new supply can clear into a nervous tape.
All three sit under the same rule.
The market wants proof before extending the bounce.
The Proof Window
A call is not a deal. A bounce is not leadership. A Fed hold is not relief. Thursday starts there.
FINAL FRAME
The open starts with futures mixed, oil high, and chips trying to lead.
What is priced: July hold, chip rebound, Iran wanting talks, oil below the war peak, and live sports driving search demand.
What is not priced: Iran retaliation spreading in the Gulf, WTI holding above $75, the Fed hike tail moving back above 20%, or SK Hynix flow failing after oversubscription.
The market can rally on the call.
It cannot relax until ships do.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
