WTI fell below $82. Futures surged. Hormuz reopening odds sit at 30%. CPI is at 4.2% and PPI at 6.5%. The war ended. The cost chain hasn't.
THE DAILY PULSE
The war ended over the weekend. The cost chain didn't notice.
Trump said the deal is "complete." Oil fell below $82. S&P futures jumped over 1%. Nasdaq futures surged nearly 2%. Asian stocks rallied 3%. The dollar dropped as gold climbed on the relief.
Every surface signal reads relief. Six months of war ended in one sentence.
But the FOMC meets in 48 hours. CPI sits at 4.2%. PPI printed 6.5%. The 10-year held near 4.5% all last week. The deal removes the future shock. It can't undo the past one.
PREMIER FEATURE
Buffett, Gates and Bezos Quietly Dumping Stocks—Here's Why
The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It’s something we haven’t seen in America for more than a century.
THE LEAD SIGNAL
The Deal That Closed the War
The agreement landed over the weekend. Iran will reopen Hormuz within 30 days. It reaffirmed its nuclear pledge. The US will lift oil sanctions. A signing ceremony is set for later this week in Switzerland.
Oil repriced fast as WTI dropped below $82. Brent fell over 4% toward $83. Three months of risk premium compressed in a session.
Europe signaled sanctions relief. The G7 meets today to discuss terms. Diplomats moved and capital followed.
But Polymarket shows Hormuz normalization by month's end at just 30%. That carries $23M in volume. The deal closed on paper. The strait stays shut until ships move.
Insurance premiums don't drop on a headline. Shipping contracts are locked at rerouted rates. Freight costs sit inside six months of rerouted supply chains. They don't reverse on a signature.
The Signing Gap
The market repriced the war's end in hours. The supply chain needs weeks. Hormuz at 30% says the physical unwind hasn't started. Every oil trade below $85 carries a bet on speed. The gap between the deal and the delivery is still open.
THE ARCHITECTURE
The Rate Path Meets the Relief
Warsh chairs his first FOMC this week. The hold is locked at 100% on Polymarket.
The signal sits deeper. Kalshi shows zero cuts this year near 65%. The dot plot lands the same afternoon. If the median shifts toward a hike, the path reprices fast.
CPI printed 4.2%. PPI hit 6.5% year over year. Both predate the deal and sit on the Fed's desk. The ECB hiked last week for the first time since 2023. Energy costs drove the same call in Frankfurt.
The deal eases future pressure. It can't erase the data already filed. The war ended and the bill arrived the same week.
The Inherited Ledger
The peace removes the shock. It doesn't remove the 6.5%. The Fed inherits data from a war that just ended. Every projection reflects a world that no longer exists. The question is how fast the models catch up.
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THE CROSS-CURRENTS
Relief Arrived Everywhere. The Costs Stayed.
SpaceX (SPCX) closed its debut at $161, up 19%. It briefly topped $2.2 trillion before the tape absorbed it. More AI-linked IPOs are expected this quarter.
Consumer sentiment rose to 48.9 from 44.8. Inflation expectations eased to 4.6%. The mood improved but the prices haven't.
China tariffs hold near 10% on Kalshi at 92%. The trade cost channel stays open as the energy channel narrows.
Kalshi prices overheating at 52% for year-end. Even with a deal, the base case runs hot.
The Relief Gradient
Oil eased. Sentiment improved. Tariffs held. The relief arrived in layers. Each carried a cost the war didn't create. Energy repriced in hours. Trade hasn't budged. What shifts next depends on which layer the Fed addresses first.
THE FORETELL LENS
The Number That Tells the Real Story
The deal is 97% certain. Hormuz by month's end is 30%. That gap is the sharpest read in the data.
Hormuz was closed over three months and ships rerouted around Africa. Insurance premiums tripled on Gulf cargo. Contracts locked at war rates.
A signature doesn't clear mines. It doesn't reset premiums or redirect ships mid-voyage.
The 30-day window in the draft sets a floor. The physical chain sets the pace. Oil dropped $4 on the headline. It has room to fall if ships move. But the market repriced the announcement, not the delivery.
The 30-Day Window
The war took three months to embed in prices. The unwind won't take one weekend. Every barrel below $85 carries a bet on timing. The 30% says the market isn't buying the speed.
PARTNER SPOTLIGHT
Middle East Conflict Lights Fuse on US Debt Bomb
America was already drowning in $38 trillion of debt, but the recent conflict in the Middle East just accelerated the timeline.
As oil spikes, a 100-year-old stock market signal that accurately predicted the 2008 and 2020 crashes is flashing a massive "Sell" on dozens of popular U.S. equities.
If you hold the wrong stocks when this debt crisis hits, it could wipe out years of gains.
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FINAL FRAME
The deal sealed over the weekend. The FOMC meets in 48 hours. Oil sits at three-month lows and equities are gapping higher. But CPI reads 4.2% and PPI reads 6.5%. Hormuz carries a 30-day floor.
The war ended but the cost chain says it hasn't.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
