A 14-point draft reached Tehran via Pakistani mediators. Oil fell below $95. Equities hit records. Polymarket prices peace by June at 51%. NFP arrives Friday.
THE DAILY PULSE
Wall Street closed at records.
The S&P cleared 7,300 for the first time. The Nasdaq jumped over 2%. The Dow gained 612 points.
Oil told the other story. WTI crashed toward $95. Brent dropped below $103. Energy stocks fell over 4%.
The 10-year yield eased to around 4.38%. The VIX slipped near 17. Gold climbed above $4,680 as the dollar weakened.
Every asset repriced for resolution. The trigger was a one-page draft Iran has not signed.
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THE LEAD SIGNAL
The framework would declare the war over. It would open a 30-day talks window. The Strait, enrichment limits, and sanctions are all on the table.
Markets moved immediately. Oil dropped as much as 13% intraday. Yields fell. Equities surged across every sector except energy.
The mechanism was inflation relief. Lower oil means less price pressure. Less pressure means less reason for the Fed to stay tight. That logic repriced bonds and stocks together.
But the MOU has no signature. Iran confirmed it is reviewing the proposal. Trump called acceptance a big assumption. He threatened resumed bombing if Iran refuses. Talks have collapsed before. The Islamabad round failed last month.
Polymarket prices a permanent peace deal by June at around 50%. That is a coin flip. Equities priced certainty.
The Repricing Gap
The market moved as if resolution arrived. The contract says odds are even. That distance is the risk. Positions built on peace carry assumptions. A one-page draft does not yet support them. The gap stays open until a signature closes it.
THE ARCHITECTURE
Semis delivered the second engine behind Wednesday's records.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) posted $10.3 billion in revenue. That beat estimates by over $400 million. The stock surged above 13%.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) jumped near 18% on strong guidance. Corning (GLW) soared 17% after announcing a manufacturing partnership with Nvidia (NVDA).
The AI rally and the Iran rally reinforced each other. Both said risk is receding. Both carried equities to records.
That overlap is also the exposure. If the deal collapses and oil re-spikes, earnings alone carry the index. Energy fell 4.2% on Wednesday. Tech surged over 2%. The weight of the market shifted in a single session.
Polymarket shows Hormuz blockade removal by May at around 55%. Just above a coin flip. The oil crash assumed more.
The Load-Bearing Wall
Two engines powered records. One was earnings. The other was a headline. Remove the headline and the earnings engine still runs. Remove the earnings and the headline carries nothing. The question is which engine the market trusts more by Friday.
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THE CROSS-CURRENTS
That topped estimates. It was the strongest read since early 2025.
Walt Disney (DIS) beat earnings under its new CEO. The stock climbed near 8%. Guidance called for 12% adjusted earnings growth this fiscal year.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls arrive next. The market already prices no Fed help. Kalshi shows around 55% odds of zero cuts in 2026. Even with oil falling, the labor market holds.
The connective thread is resilience. The economy functions at $95 oil. That strength keeps the Fed locked. The Iran deal eased inflation fears. It did not change the rate path.
The Locked Path
Lower oil softened inflation pressure. Stronger jobs hardened the Fed's position. The two forces cancelled each other. The rate path does not move until one breaks. Right now neither is breaking.
THE FORETELL LENS
WTI dropped as much as 13% in a single session.
That is a historic intraday move. It happened on a proposal. Not an agreement.
The magnitude reveals how large the war premium had become. And how fragile it was. A one-page memo erased billions in energy value within hours.
If the deal collapses, the snapback risk is equally outsized. Every barrel that repriced lower reprices higher if talks fail.
Gold confirmed the shift. It rose as oil fell. The safe-haven trade tracked dollar weakness. Geopolitical fear lost the driver's seat. What functioned as a war hedge now functions as a currency trade.
The market moved from pricing risk to pricing resolution. That transition happened in one session. It can reverse just as fast.
The Exposed Flank
The war premium dissolved on a headline. It did not dissolve on a fact. Positions built on $95 oil assume a deal. That deal exists only as a draft. The reversal distance matches the drop.
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FINAL FRAME
Iran is reviewing the MOU. A response is expected within days. Friday brings nonfarm payrolls. Both deadlines land inside the same 48-hour window.
The S&P sits at records. Oil sits near $95. Yields sit at their lowest level in a week. Every asset class priced the best case.
The next signal determines if this holds. Repricing or head fake. The market moved first. The diplomats have not moved yet.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
