Iran Strikes Kuwait | Oil Tops $95 | Broadcom Stumbles After Hours | The Data That Locked the Fed

The S&P fell after nine sessions near records. The Dow dropped over 1%. The Nasdaq slipped.

Oil surged above $95 for a third day. Gold held above $4,400.

The 10-year yield hit 4.5%. The 30-year touched 5%.

Iran launched missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. CENTCOM said none reached their targets. The US struck Qeshm Island.

ADP added 122,000 jobs. That was the most since early 2025. ISM Services beat at 54.5.

Every input pointed the same way. Hiring stayed strong. Oil stayed high. Yields climbed.

The rally needed soft data to stay intact. It got the opposite.

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CENTCOM said it defeated the strikes. Two missiles aimed at Kuwait fell short. Three aimed at Bahrain were intercepted. The US struck Qeshm Island.

Oil closed above $95. That was the third straight gain. US crude stocks fell nearly 8 million barrels. That marked the sixth weekly drop in a row.

The conflict approaches its 100th day. The House passed a war powers vote, 215 to 208. Four Republicans crossed. The vote was symbolic. But it was the first time it passed either chamber.

The path to peace stretched further. Polymarket prices Hormuz normalization by end of month near 15%. A deal by year-end sits near 75%. Near-term odds lag far behind. Peace keeps getting pushed, not denied.

That delay has a cost. Oil above $95 feeds into freight costs. Freight feeds into goods prices. Goods prices feed into the next CPI print.

The Fed can wait. The pump cannot.

The Hundred-Day Mark

The conflict stopped being a shock and became a regime. At 100 days, the risk premium is no longer a hedge. It is a baseline. Bets built on near-term peace carry terms the calendar now rejects. The war is not ending. It is settling in.

Broadcom (AVGO) posted results after the close. Revenue topped $22B, a record. AI chip sales reached $10.8B. The company announced a 4-for-1 split. The stock fell 7%.

The miss was small. Less than 1% on revenue. At nearly 90 times earnings, there was no room.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) beat on both lines. Revenue rose 26% to $1.39B. Net new ARR hit a Q1 record. The company raised its guide and announced a split. The stock fell over 10%.

Two prints. Two splits. Two selloffs. During the session, Nvidia and Dell fell over 3%. Oracle dropped over 5%.

The AI trade still leads. But the bar moved higher than the prints could clear.

The Proof Premium

The rally repriced what counts as good enough. Beating the estimate is no longer the test. The test is whether the print can justify six months of flow. The multiple moved. The earnings did not move fast enough.

ADP added 122,000 jobs, the most since early 2025. Gains were broad. Eight of ten sectors hired. Factory orders surged 4.8%.

The 10-year reached 4.5%. The 30-year touched 5%. Both repriced after the ADP print.

The OECD cut its global growth forecast to 2.8%. SpaceX opens its roadshow today at a $1.75T target. Payrolls land Friday.

That print decides whether the Fed debates a hold or a hike.

Hiring, services, and yields all landed the same week. So did the Iran strikes. Different causes. Same window. Same pressure.

The Compression Window

Three forces compressed into five days. Oil pushed costs higher. Labor kept demand alive. Yields repriced the rate path. Each one alone is manageable. Together they close the door on relief before the FOMC. The margin for a soft print shrank.

The Fed meets in two weeks. Every data point since the month began pushed away from cuts.

Kalshi prices around 70% odds of zero rate cuts this year. Overheating odds sit at 40%. Stagflation sits near 35%.

The S&P rallied for nine straight sessions into June. That run was built on a simple bet. The worst was behind. Relief was next.

ADP, ISM, and oil above $95 all say the same thing. Relief is not next. The CME FedWatch now prices at least one hike by year-end.

The market assumed the Fed would cut. The data says the Fed may raise. That gap has not closed. It widened this week.

The Reversed Bet

Nine sessions of gains priced a world that stopped existing. The labor market is not cooling. Oil is not falling. The rate path the rally assumed no longer matches the data. The next move is not the one the rally bought.

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Iran approaches day 100. Oil sits above $95. Payrolls land Friday. The FOMC meets in two weeks.

The rally priced relief. The data delivered pressure. Broadcom proved the AI bar is higher. ADP proved the labor market is not cooling.

The gap between what is priced and what arrived just widened.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.