PPI Confirms the Pipeline | SpaceX Opens at $1.75T | Iran Deal This Weekend | The Cost the Peace Can't Unwind

The S&P rose 1.75%. The Dow gained over 1,000 points. The Nasdaq climbed 2.63% while the VIX fell 12% to 19.4.

Oil fell to $87 and the 10-year yield eased to 4.45%. Gold rose nearly 2%.

Trump canceled strikes on Iran. He said a deal could be signed this weekend. Asia surged overnight with the Kospi jumping over 8%.

Then PPI landed with producer prices up 6.5% over the prior year. The steepest gain since late 2022.

Futures are flat this morning as SpaceX starts trading in hours.

The market priced the peace. PPI says the damage was already in the pipe.

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May producer prices rose 1.1% month over month. The annual rate hit 6.5%. That is the steepest since late 2022.

Final demand goods surged 2.8% and drove most of the headline. Services rose only 0.3%. The goods side carried the weight.

Stage 1 input costs jumped 3.2%. That is the largest gain since records began. Chemicals, diesel, and gasoline drove the increase.

This is not new pressure but old pressure arriving. Oil sat above $90 for months. Hormuz disruption compounded it. Inputs absorbed the damage before the deal arrived.

A deal this weekend does not undo what producers already paid.

April ran 1.4%. May hit 1.1%. Two straight months above 1%. The cost pipeline is pressurizing at every level.

Kalshi shows 75% odds of zero rate cuts this year. Rate relief is not coming. Borrowing costs hold while input costs climb.

PPI feeds the Fed's preferred price gauge. Consumer costs follow with a lag. The pipeline points one direction.

PPI measures what producers already absorbed. Six months of conflict costs sit inside the supply chain. The deal clears the source. It does not clear the lag. The pipe has its own clock.

The offering is $135 per share. The target valuation sits near $1.75 trillion. The raise is $75 billion. Trading begins today on Nasdaq as SpaceX (SPCX).

The book closed at two times covered. Demand topped supply even as the tape fell four of five days.

MSCI confirmed fast-track inclusion, which triggers mechanical passive buying.

Polymarket prices SpaceX above $1.2 trillion at close near 99%. The crowd expects a first-day jump. Thursday's rally gave it a runway.

The debut absorbs $75 billion from the same pool. Oracle stacked $40 billion behind it. PPI confirmed input costs are not falling. Capital lands while the cost backdrop holds.

SpaceX opens into relief. The peace deal gave it a runway. But the rate backdrop did not change. Seventy-five billion reprices the capital pool. The question is who absorbs next.

Adobe (ADBE) beat on revenue and earnings. Sales rose 13% to $6.6 billion. The stock fell 6% after hours. The CFO is stepping down. AI disruption fears weigh on the name.

Intel (INTC) got a rare double upgrade from Bank of America. The stock jumped 9%. Server CPU and foundry growth drove the call. It trades near 100 times this year's earnings.

Kalshi prices China tariffs at 10% to 20% on July 1. That range holds at 80%. A pending 12.5% duty under Section 301 adds to the pressure. The tariff floor is not dropping.

Adobe got squeezed by AI costs. Intel got lifted by AI capex. China tariffs add to the input floor. All three feed the cost picture PPI confirmed.

AI split the verdict. Adobe proved demand and got sold. Intel sold a roadmap and got bought. The fork is not about AI growth. It is about who carries the cost.

Crude fell to $87 on Thursday. Trump said a deal could come this weekend. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, prices could fall further. The market is already pricing relief.

But PPI does not measure crude prices. It measures what producers already paid. The 6.5% annual gain includes months of oil above $90. Diesel, gasoline, and chemicals sat elevated all spring. Those costs already flowed into goods.

A crude drop today takes months to reach finished goods. The supply chain does not reverse in real time. Producers reprice on their own schedule.

Kalshi's economy contract captures the tension. Overheating sits at 40% while stagflation holds at 30%. The split says the market cannot decide which regime applies. The deal resolves one input but the rest stay elevated.

Oil falls fast but supply chains don't. The deal may lower crude this month. Producer costs carry conflict pricing on a longer timeline. The lag is the risk the rally isn't pricing.

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SpaceX opens today. Trump says a signing could come this weekend. PPI confirmed the pipe is loaded.

What is priced: peace, lower oil, zero cuts, a first-day pop.

What is not: the cost lag, the capital drain, the staying power.

SpaceX tests whether the pool has room. The deal tests whether relief has duration.

The deal ends the conflict. It does not end the cost cycle.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.