WTI surged above $92 overnight on fresh US-Iran strikes. Kalshi stagflation odds hit near 90%. PCE lands at 8:30. Snowflake jumped over 30%.
THE DAILY PULSE
The deal cracked before the damage report landed.
The Dow closed at a record on Wednesday. The S&P eked out a new high. The Nasdaq barely moved.
Oil crashed over 5% to near $89. Iran said Hormuz would reopen in a month. The White House called it a fabrication.
Then overnight, the strikes resumed.
US forces hit a drone site in Bandar Abbas. They shot down four IRGC drones near the Strait. Iran struck a US airbase. Kuwait started intercepting.
Oil surged above $92. The 10-year yield snapped above 4.53%. Futures point lower.
The relief trade reversed. PCE arrives at 8:30. Both land in the same session.
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THE LEAD SIGNAL
The framework lasted three days.
The Hormuz deal arrived Sunday. By Monday, US forces struck missile sites near the Strait. By Wednesday, oil fell below $89. The claim behind it was denied.
By Thursday, the IRGC attacked a US airbase.
Oil reversed. WTI surged above $92. Brent jumped above $97. The one-day crash vanished overnight.
Trump said no nation would control the Strait. The IRGC said retaliation was certain.
Polymarket prices Hormuz normal by end of June at 35%. That was near 45% Monday. A new agreement by June 30 sits at 68%. By June 7, only 37%.
The deal is technically alive. The military posture says otherwise.
The Broken Framework
The framework gave the market a route to lower oil. The strikes took it back. Each cycle compresses the odds instead of expanding them. Polymarket's Hormuz number fell every day this week. The pattern is the signal.
THE ARCHITECTURE
The print arrives with the damage already locked in.
April PCE drops at 8:30 this morning. It captures the oil shock pipeline. Freight locked higher. Airlines passed through fuel. Food absorbed the cost.
The 10-year yield rose above 4.53% overnight. That snapped a five-session decline. Kashkari said inflation is his top concern.
Kalshi prices zero cuts in 2026 at 63%. One cut sits at 15%. The market gives the Fed no room.
The bigger shift sits underneath. Kalshi's economy market repriced hard this week. Stagflation odds surged to near 90%. Days ago they sat near 35%. Soft landing compressed further.
The market stopped debating which problem. It named one.
The Stagflation Verdict
Stagflation near 90% means one thing. Costs rise while growth slows. The shift happened before PCE landed. This morning's print is the confirmation. The Fed sees the same collision.
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THE CROSS-CURRENTS
Two AI earnings. Two verdicts. One night.
Snowflake (SNOW) surged over 30% after hours. Revenue hit $1.39 billion and beat by $70 million. A $6 billion AWS deal for AI chips drove the move. Guidance rose to $5.84 billion for the year.
Salesforce (CRM) beat Q1 but gave soft guidance. Revenue was $11.13 billion. The stock dipped after hours. It is down over 30% this year. AI fears drove the gap.
Goldman raised its S&P target to 8,000.
Kalshi prices 91% odds of more tech layoffs this year than last. Over $31 million backs that view.
The infrastructure layer is expanding. The application layer is compressing. Dell, Costco, and Dollar Tree report tonight.
The Capex Divide
The $6 billion AWS deal confirms the build. The soft guide confirms the squeeze. AI spending is rising and compressing margins at once. Both readings are correct. The question is which layer your positions sit on.
THE FORETELL LENS
Every Hormuz headline reverses within 48 hours.
The pattern is three cycles deep now.
Deal framework Sunday. Oil crashes. Strikes resume Monday night. Oil rebounds.
State media reports Hormuz reopening Wednesday. The White House denies it. The IRGC attacks Thursday.
Each cycle runs the same arc. The headline lands. The market prices it. The military erases it.
Polymarket's Hormuz odds started the week near 45%. They sit at 35% now. Each reversal cut the number.
The market keeps buying the headline. The battlefield keeps selling it. That is the structure of how this deal trades now.
Until terms close and ships move, every oil dip is a bet. It bets the next headline holds longer than the last.
The 48-Hour Reset
Three cycles. Three reversals. The market prices relief. The military prices reality. Until one side breaks the loop, the 48-hour reset is the trade.
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FINAL FRAME
The strikes and the print land in the same window.
Oil reversed. Yields snapped higher. Stagflation odds surged. PCE arrives in hours.
What is priced: Hormuz progress, AI demand, no cuts. A June deal path.
What is not priced: PCE confirming the damage. The framework cracking. Stagflation as the base case.
The deal is in the rally. The strikes are in the oil. The print is on the clock.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
