Trump Resets the Clock | Oil Back Above $107 | Ceasefire Odds Collapse | Payrolls Into a Closed Market

Oil jumped nearly 8% overnight. Ceasefire-by-April-30 fell from 39% to 26%. Payrolls land tomorrow into a closed market.

Trump's speech ended it Wednesday night. Oil surged nearly 8%. Futures fell over 1% across all three major indexes. The 10-year yield climbed. The dollar reversed its two-day slide. Gold gave back recent gains.

Two days ago, equities and oil disagreed. Equities priced a short war. Oil priced a long Strait closure. That split defined the tape.

Now the split is gone. Equities moved lower. Oil moved higher. Both are pricing more war. No near-term exit. A Strait that stays closed.

Payrolls land tomorrow into a closed market. Tuesday prices what's accumulated.

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Two claims built the two-day rally. First: Trump said the US could leave Iran without Hormuz reopening. Second: he claimed Iran's president had asked for a ceasefire.

His speech walked back both.

He promised more attacks over the next two to three weeks. He threatened strikes on power plants if no deal emerged. He deployed a third aircraft carrier. He made no mention of the April 6 deadline. Iran's Foreign Ministry called the ceasefire claim false.

The market had priced an exit. The speech priced an escalation.

Polymarket's ceasefire contract reflects the damage. Ceasefire by April 30 fell from 39% to 26% overnight. That's a 13-point drop in one speech. The contract moved as Trump was still speaking.

Kalshi shows WTI at $108 or above today at 55%. Yesterday WTI briefly touched below $100. The round trip happened in under 24 hours.

The Strait stayed closed the entire time. It was closed during the rally. It's still closed now.

The Walkback. The rally rested on two specific claims. Both were reversed by the same voice that made them. Positioning priced a short exit. It now prices two to three more weeks of escalation. The market didn't change its read. The signal changed.

Oil didn't just recover. It re-accelerated.

WTI was below $100 Wednesday morning. By Thursday it was near $108. Kalshi's live WTI market shows $106 or above today at around 80%. That's not a bounce. That's the physical market reclaiming its argument.

End-of-year pricing moved with it. Kalshi shows WTI above $135 at year-end at 57%. Above $140 sits at 46%. The route premium is being repriced as structural, not temporary.

Hormuz traffic confirms it. Kalshi shows average daily transits above 5 at 21%. Full normalization, above 100 daily transits, sits at 1%.

Trump's speech gave no timeline for the Strait. Iran denied the ceasefire. No mechanism for reopening was offered by either side.

The Physical Reality. The futures market was trading Trump's words. The physical market was trading the Strait. For 48 hours they disagreed. The speech ended the disagreement on the physical market's terms. The route premium isn't a hedge. It's the base case.

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Nike reported earnings Tuesday. The beat was real. EPS came in above expectations. Revenue was in line. The miss was guidance. Management flagged China down roughly 20% next quarter. The stock fell more than 15%.

That's not just a Nike story. China demand is cracking. Tariffs and war pressure are hitting simultaneously. Supply costs are rising. A key market is contracting. Nike's guidance showed what war-era earnings look like.

The shutdown is still running. Kalshi puts the shutdown lasting at least 55 days at 43%. Gas above $4.15 by end of April sits at 95% on Polymarket. The energy cost embedded in the economy isn't waiting for diplomacy.

Payrolls land tomorrow. Into a closed market. Kalshi's recession market sits at 33%.

The Compression Window. Nike showed what war-era earnings look like. Payrolls will show what war-era labor looks like. Tuesday inherits all three. The labor read. Oil above $100. The deadline Trump stopped mentioning. Delay doesn't reduce the load. It concentrates it.

Yesterday's PM edition named the gap. Ceasefire by April 30 sat at 39%. Hormuz traffic normal by end of April sat at 19%. The crowd was buying diplomacy without buying logistics. That 20-point spread was the trade.

After the speech, both legs moved lower.

Ceasefire by April 30 fell to 26%. Hormuz normal traffic by end of April fell to 13% on Polymarket. The spread held. But it compressed from the wrong direction. Both numbers declined.

That's the non-obvious read. The crowd didn't revise one leg. It revised both. That means this isn't just about ceasefire odds. The physical constraint is being repriced too. Vessel backlogs take time to clear. Even a ceasefire doesn't fix that quickly. The route premium and the war premium are now moving together.

Kalshi's year-end oil market hasn't moved toward resolution. It's moved toward persistence.

The Gap Closes Down. The ceasefire-logistics split was the week's defining signal. It didn't close upward. Both legs declined together. That's coordinated deterioration. Not convergence.

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Payrolls land tomorrow into a closed market. Tuesday carries the labor print. It carries the April 6 deadline Trump stopped mentioning. And oil above $100.

The peace trade was built on two headlines. Both were reversed in one speech. The market had two days to price an exit. Now it has a weekend to price an escalation.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.