Weekly Market Signals

Last week ended with the market buying enough but not buying proof.

Payrolls missed. The Fed split widened. Oil volatility returned. SK Hynix still raised $26.5 billion in the largest ever US listing by a foreign company. Every major question survived the week.

The market did not settle any of it.

This week does. CPI lands Tuesday morning, the first inflation print since the oil shock. Warsh testifies Tuesday and Wednesday, his first congressional appearance as chair. Retail sales test whether the K-shape holds. The bank complex opens second-quarter earnings across Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Fed speakers land every day.

The market wants noise it can fade. This week hands it data it must price.

That's not noise. That's capital rushing back into AI.

But here's what smart investors are starting to realize:

AI doesn't run on chips alone. It runs on data.

Mode Mobile sits upstream of this entire shift.

Every model — ChatGPT, copilots, next-gen AI — depends on real human behavior. Clicks. Searches. Usage. That's the fuel. And it's getting harder to find.

Mode has built a 490M+ user data engine powered by real, consented activity. They pay users for screen time — and generate the high-quality data AI companies actually need.

The traction is already there:

Over 59,000 shareholders have already claimed shares. They've secured the $MODE ticker from Nasdaq.

Tap into a $1T opportunity — invest now at just $0.52/share and get up to 20% bonus!

Disclaimer:  Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering. Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur. The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.

CPI, Core CPI, Warsh's House Financial Services testimony, ADP Weekly Employment Change, and Net Long-Term TIC Flows all land Tuesday.

CPI is the print that matters.

May CPI came in at 4.2%. Core hit 3.5%. Both readings came before the ceasefire ended and before oil jumped above $80. Kalshi traders see only a 28% chance headline inflation rises above 4.2% again in 2026. That view depends on energy behaving.

Energy stopped behaving Wednesday.

If June CPI prints below 4%, the market gets its peak. Kalshi's inflation trade holds. Warsh keeps his cover to say prices are still too high while the direction is right. If June prints at or above 4.2%, the peak thesis breaks. The hike tail moves higher. The K-shape observation from Delta becomes a Fed problem, not just an earnings frame.

Core matters as much as headline. Services carry the sticky component. If core prints above 3.5%, the AI infrastructure inflation the minutes flagged is real. That is inflation the Fed cannot cut into.

Warsh testifies to the House Financial Services Committee the same day. He will read the CPI print before he speaks. His tone is the second data point of the day.

The Print Read

CPI is the receipt Warsh has been waiting for. A cool print buys him time. A hot print hands him a hike conversation he did not have to start.

PPI, Warsh's Senate Banking Committee testimony, the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, and EIA crude and gas inventory data land Wednesday.

PPI reads the pipeline. May PPI came in at 6.5% year over year, the steepest since late 2022. Stage 1 input costs jumped 3.2%, the largest gain on record. Those numbers came during the war. June PPI will show whether the pipeline began clearing before the ceasefire broke or whether producer costs stayed loaded.

Warsh returns for a second day of testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. Two days of questioning give him room to build a message the market can price. If he refuses, investors will assume the lower-guidance Fed is intentional.

Kalshi prices zero cuts in 2026 near 75%. A hike sits near 20%. The market has priced his hold. This week tests his path.

EIA crude and gas data test whether last week's oil surge has inventory support behind it or whether it was priced entirely on the Hormuz shock. The MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate reads the household transmission. The 10-year touched 4.58% Wednesday. Mortgage rates will follow.

The Pipeline Read

PPI tests whether the war's cost is still moving forward. Warsh's second day tests whether he wants to move markets or continue absorbing them.

Jerome Powell says gold isn’t money. The Fed says inflation is under control.

But look at what central banks are doing.

Last year, they bought more gold than at any time since 1967. China dumped $100B in U.S. debt, then bought gold. Poland, Hungary, Singapore, Turkey… all loading up.

This isn’t a trend. It’s a panic.

After the U.S. froze Russia’s assets, the world learned a hard lesson: there’s only one asset no one can freeze.

Gold.

I’ve just released an urgent report on one stock positioned to benefit as this rush accelerates.

Get the name and ticker here >>>

Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories, the NAHB Housing Market Index, and Pending Home Sales all land Thursday.

Retail Sales is the K-shape test. Delta Air Lines (DAL) named it Friday. Premium cabin revenue passed main cabin for the first time in company history. Retail Sales will show whether the split shows up in June's spending patterns across categories.

May Retail Sales rose 0.7%, above forecasts. Personal Income and Spending both ran hot. But the composition matters more than the headline. If June Retail Sales shows premium categories driving the print while general merchandise softens, the K-shape becomes the data frame. If it shows broad-based strength, the consumer is still absorbing across the income spectrum.

Philly Fed reads regional manufacturing pressure. May's ISM prices paid ran near 82. Philly Fed will show whether that reading held into June or began cooling with oil.

NAHB and Pending Home Sales test housing. Existing home sales fell 3.1% in May to a decade low. Builder confidence dropped to 26 in June. The 10-year at 4.58% will feed straight into affordability.

The Absorption Read

Retail Sales measures who is still spending. Housing measures who cannot afford to. Together they read the K-shape at the household level.

Building Permits, Housing Starts, Import and Export Prices, Industrial Production, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment all land Friday.

Michigan Sentiment carries the household cushion read. The final June print sat near multi-year lows. July's preliminary reading will show whether the ceasefire collapse and oil surge moved sentiment further or whether households have already priced permanent uncertainty.

Import Prices read the tariff and shipping channel. The China tariff rate locked in near 15% earlier in July. Hormuz stayed impaired all week. If import prices stayed elevated in June, the trade channel adds another inflation source the Fed must watch.

Industrial Production tests whether AI capex is still carrying the growth headline. Q1 GDP showed capex doing the work while personal consumption barely registered. June Industrial Production will show whether that mix continued.

The Sentiment Read

Michigan measures what households feel. Industrial Production measures what firms are still building. The gap between them is the K-shape confirmed in a single day.

We’ve found The Next Elon Musk… and what we believe to be the next Tesla.

It’s already racked up $26 billion in government contracts.

Peter Thiel just bet $1 Billion on it.

And you can get exposure — pre-IPO — through a 4-letter ticker symbol revealed in this free briefing.

Unlock the ticker now and get it completely free.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), and the broader bank complex open earnings season this week. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), UnitedHealth (UNH), Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and General Electric (GE) round out the calendar.

JPMorgan is the most consequential. Net interest income, loan growth, and provision for credit losses all read the household directly. If credit provisions rise, the K-shape is showing up in bank charge-offs before it shows up in the retail sales data.

The bank complex reports across three sessions. Consistency in commentary matters more than any single print. If every CEO names higher-for-longer as the base case, the market will pull forward the hike tail. If several soften on rate sensitivity, the Fed cover breaks in another direction.

United and American test the K-shape in a different sector. Delta beat Friday on premium demand. UAL and AAL will confirm or deny the pattern across their networks.

Netflix tests whether subscription spending remains insulated as households reprioritize discretionary budgets.

The Corporate Read

Banks read household credit. Airlines read discretionary travel. Healthcare reads defensive positioning. The pattern across the earnings tape defines whether the K-shape is now the corporate reporting frame.

Last week the market bought enough but not proof.

This week the proof arrives. CPI Tuesday morning is the first read on whether May's peak was real or whether the oil shock is already flowing through. Warsh testifies both Tuesday and Wednesday. Retail Sales Thursday tests whether the K-shape shows up in the data the way it shows up in Delta's cabin split. The bank tape opens earnings season across three days of financial reporting.

Fed speakers appear every day, giving investors the first public read on whether the June split is widening.

Warsh has said prices are too high. The market has priced his hold. This week tests whether the data supports his cover or ends it.

Last week the market bought outcomes that were just good enough to keep capital in motion. This week the receipts arrive and the market has to price them.

The K-shape tells companies what demand remains. CPI tells the Fed what inflation remains. Warsh tells markets how much uncertainty remains.

All three arrive in one week.