The World’s First Truly Predictive Markets Intelligence Briefing.

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Every day, billions of dollars flow through markets that trade not assets, but events.
From elections and policy decisions to tech breakthroughs and global crises, prediction markets are transforming the way we understand probability, sentiment, and truth.

Oil Falls, Yields Hold | Gold Breaks | Markets Stop Agreeing | The Signals That Split

Mar 23, 2026

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9 min read

Oil Falls, Yields Hold | Gold Breaks | Markets Stop Agreeing | The Signals That Split

Oil pulled back sharply. Yields stayed high. Gold dropped. Prediction markets didn’t move. The system stopped moving together.

Bo Nichols, +1

Manufacturing Contracts | Bond Market Prices a Hike | Trump's 48-Hour Ultimatum | The Data That Landed Second

Mar 23, 2026

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11 min read

Manufacturing Contracts | Bond Market Prices a Hike | Trump's 48-Hour Ultimatum | The Data That Landed Second

Flash PMI showed manufacturing below 50 for the first time in a year. The 10-year hit 4.4%. Then an ultimatum made both reads feel like last week's problem.

Bo Nichols, +1

Mar 22, 2026

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11 min read

The System Gets Its First Report Card

Five Fed officials speak into a fractured dot plot. PMI surveys test whether the shock has reached the service economy. Earnings from a cruise line, a homebuilder, and two payroll processors will describe what the data cannot yet show.

Bo Nichols, +1

Six Things That Actually Drove Markets This Week

Mar 21, 2026

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12 min read

Six Things That Actually Drove Markets This Week

One named assumption held the entire market together. Oil found a floor, not a ceiling. The Fed's projections said what Powell wouldn't. And by Friday, traders had stopped asking whether the shock would end and started pricing how long the system runs without resolution.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Pullback, Gold Break, Fed Confirms the Trap | The Signals That Didn’t Align

Mar 20, 2026

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10 min read

Oil Pullback, Gold Break, Fed Confirms the Trap | The Signals That Didn’t Align

WTI fell from $100 but physical markets stayed tight. Gold dropped sharply. The Fed confirmed fewer cuts. Markets are no longer moving together.

Bo Nichols, +1

Oil Hits $119, Pulls Back | Fed Confirms One Cut | Hormuz at Zero | The Stagflation Window Opens

Mar 20, 2026

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9 min read

Oil Hits $119, Pulls Back | Fed Confirms One Cut | Hormuz at Zero | The Stagflation Window Opens

Brent hit $119 before pulling back. Powell's dot plot shows one cut. Hormuz traffic recovery sits near 25% by April 1.

Bo Nichols, +1