More Sales, Thinner Margin | Cheaper Oil, Firmer Bet | Cash on Request | Open, Not Settled

The rotation out of chip stocks crossed the Pacific overnight.

Seoul's Kospi fell 5.3% while Hong Kong rose 3.7%. Nasdaq-100 futures fell while Dow futures rose, about 0.5% each at 6:10 a.m. ET. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.85%. Brent was near $96, up about 1.6% from Wednesday's $94.62 settle. Gold was near $4,140, and bitcoin was near $80,150. The Bank of England raised its rate to 4% at 7 a.m. Weekly jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m.

Seoul sold the chips.

New York's futures split.

Two companies guided sales above forecasts. Only Qualcomm guided profit below them.

Qualcomm (QCOM) forecast more revenue and less profit per share than analysts expected. It guided fiscal first-quarter revenue to $10.4 billion to $11.2 billion, with a midpoint above estimates. Its adjusted earnings midpoint of $2.25 a share sits below the $2.32 consensus. The company said costs are rising across wafers, packaging, testing and memory. It is raising prices and expects the full benefit in chip margins in the second half of fiscal 2027. Automotive revenue hit a record $1.99 billion. The stock was near $155 before the open, about 10% below Wednesday's close.

AppLovin (APP) grew revenue 55% to $2.19 billion and earned $1.44 billion. It guided fourth-quarter revenue to $2.365 billion to $2.395 billion, above the $2.25 billion consensus. It expects an adjusted EBITDA margin of 84% to 85%. The stock was near $315, about 16% higher and below its evening peak above $330.

More Sales, Thinner Margin

Both companies told investors to expect more sales than forecast. Qualcomm expects to keep less of each dollar than analysts had modeled, and its stock fell. AppLovin expects to keep about the same share as last quarter, and its stock rose. Qualcomm's fiscal second half, when it expects the full benefit, starts in late March.

Inflation expectations fell with oil, and Kalshi's bet on higher rates rose.

One-year inflation swaps fell to about 2.1% from 2.7% a week earlier. Brent settled down 8.7% on Wednesday, its lowest settlement since Aug. 31. Reuters tied the drop to bets that the new Congress could hasten an end to the Iran war. The two-year Treasury yield touched about 4.55%, a two-month low. The Fed's Oct. 28 statement said "economic activity is expanding at a strong pace." Two officials dissented in favor of a hike. ADP said private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, above forecasts near 69,000. Kalshi's December rate-hike contract held at 80 cents overnight.

Norway's central bank held its rate Thursday and said it is "prepared to raise the policy rate if needed." The Bank of England's vote was 8-1, and the dissenter wanted a half-point hike.

Cheaper Oil, Firmer Bet

At 4 p.m. ET, Kalshi's hike contract stood at 69 cents Friday, 73 Monday, 75 Tuesday and 80 Wednesday. Over those sessions, the two-year yield fell to a two-month low and one-year inflation swaps dropped about 0.6 point. Buyers paid more for a December hike each day as bonds priced less inflation. The Fed's October statement supports them, and inflation pricing does not. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, one of the dissenters, speaks at 8:50 a.m.

Two holders of very different assets face requests for cash on a calendar.

Bitcoin pledged against Trump Media's notes moved to Crypto.com hours after a record-low close. About 4,259 bitcoin, worth roughly $340 million, left wallets that blockchain analytics firms label as note collateral. The company pledged 4,260.73 bitcoin against those notes, its second-quarter report said. Its shares closed at $4.49 Wednesday, down 24.5%. Noteholders can require a cash repurchase on Nov. 30, which could cost up to about $1 billion. Trump Media has not explained the transfer, and a deposit is not a sale.

Blackstone's (BX) private credit fund, BCRED, reported loans on non-accrual at 2.7% of cost and 1.7% of fair value. Its third-quarter withdrawal requests ran about 10%, twice its 5% quarterly cap. Blue Owl Capital Corp. reported 2.9% at cost and 0.8% at fair value, and its net asset value rose.

Cash on Request

Trump Media's coins trade every second, and its put date is fixed. BCRED's loans rarely trade, and its cap limits how much can leave each quarter. In both cases, the size of the cash call is up to the holders. The Nov. 30 put elections and fourth-quarter redemption requests will show it.

A judge let Kalshi's stock contracts keep trading and doubted the agency that cleared them.

Judge Valerie Caproni let single-stock perpetual futures keep trading on Tuesday, the day the CFTC cleared them. The group that sued includes Cboe (CBOE) and Citadel Securities. The judge found the group likely to win its main claim. The contracts "appear to satisfy the definition of a swap," she wrote, placing them under the SEC. She found the balance of equities and the public interest also favored the group. The CFTC's actions "seem to represent a major disruption to the equities market," she wrote. She denied a restraining order only because the claimed harm was "conjectural." The approvals took effect when the CFTC let a 45-day review pass without a written order. Kalshi lists perpetuals on four stocks, including Qualcomm, and Coinbase (COIN) also won approval.

Kalshi's and Polymarket's contracts on Gadi Eisenkot becoming Israel's prime minister sit about 15 points apart.

Open, Not Settled

Traders in the stock perpetuals now hold two risks, the stock and the case. The price shows the first and not the second. In Israel, if a repeat election is called, Kalshi's contract pays No and Polymarket's rolls over. That gap is not a straight disagreement. The CFTC's filing on Friday comes next.

Qualcomm promised more sales and less profit than forecast, and its stock fell. AppLovin promised more sales at the same margin, and its stock rose. Oil pulled down inflation expectations, and Kalshi's December-hike contract climbed again. Trump Media's collateral moved ahead of a cash deadline, and BCRED's requests ran at twice its cap. Kalshi's stock contracts traded on as their legal basis came into question.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.