Nasdaq jumped 2.8%. Palantir surged on AI demand. WTI fell near $76. September moved back toward a coin flip.
The buildout got paid. The barrel gave it room.
The Nasdaq jumped 2.6%. The S&P gained 1.8%. The Dow rose 1.7%. The VIX still rose 3.5% to 16.41.
Oil fell 5.85% to $75.64. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.62%. Gold gained 1.1%. The dollar was flat
Tuesday gave the tape two supports at once.
First, earnings worked. Palantir (PLTR) soared after a blowout AI quarter. Caterpillar (CAT) gained after beating and raising guidance, helped by data-center equipment demand. Chips extended the rebound. Micron (MU) rose 7%. Marvell (MRVL) jumped 14%.
Second, oil fell again after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. could reach a deal with Iran to reopen Hormuz today or tomorrow.
The market bought both.
AI demand and oil relief finally pointed the same way.
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Palantir proved the software side can still fund itself.
Revenue reached $1.94 billion, up 93%. U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% to $764 million. Remaining deal value in that unit reached $6.24 billion, up 124%.
Free cash flow came in at $1.22 billion. That is a 63% margin. Adjusted operating margin ran at 62%.
Then management raised the year. Full-year revenue guidance moved to about $8.15 billion from about $7.65 billion.
That is why the stock surged.
Palantir did not just show demand. It showed demand with cash. That was the missing piece in July.
The Cash Receipt
The market is not rejecting AI. It is paying the companies that turn AI demand into cash now.
Oil changed the Fed math, but not the Fed problem.
Prediction markets followed. WTI touching $75 in August sits at 74%. A $70 touch sits at 44%. The $90 upside is down to 40%. A $100 print is 17%.
That is a lower inflation path than last week.
But it is not a clean one.
Analysts still doubt Iran accepts any deal that limits its control of the Strait. A cargo ship was hit Monday near Al Khasab, Oman. Hormuz traffic normal by August 31 sits at 19%. September 30 is 30%. December 31 is 61%.
The Route Discount
Oil is pricing a deal before traffic proves one.
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The Fed market moved toward the middle.
September no-change now sits at 51%. A 25 basis point hike is 48%. That is closer than Monday, but still not relief.
October no-change is 69%. A hike sits at 23%. December no-change is 59%, while a hike sits at 34%.
A Fed hike in 2026 sits at 63%.
That is the important piece.
Oil relief lowered pressure. It did not erase the inflation case. ISM prices still printed at 71.1. Factory hiring turned positive after 33 months. Production rose. Backlogs and export orders crossed into growth.
That is good for earnings.
It is less good for a Fed that just saw three officials dissent for a hike.
The Reopened Case
A cheaper barrel helps the doves. A hiring factory sector helps the hawks.
Prediction markets are getting venture prices before settled rules.
Polymarket is reportedly seeking a valuation above $20 billion in a new funding round. The talks could raise about $1 billion. The timing matters.
Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, tastytrade, moomoo, Plus500, and IG Group are all moving deeper into event contracts. IG’s $1.3 billion Underdog deal already showed traditional brokers want the category.
But the legal map is not done.
States are still arguing sports and election markets look like gambling. New York just sued Kalshi. Forty-four state attorneys general have pushed back on the CFTC’s sports-market reach.
At the same time, traders are professionalizing. More markets mean more bots, alerts, and data tools. Prediction markets are becoming active trading venues, not casual odds boards.
The Valuation Gap
Capital is pricing prediction markets as infrastructure. Regulators are still arguing what they are.
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Tuesday was the strongest version of the relief trade.
Earnings worked. Oil fell. Yields eased. The Dow hit a record. Tech led. Chips bounced. The S&P returned to new highs.
But the rally still rests on two conditions.
First, Hormuz has to reopen in practice. A headline can cut crude by 5%. Only traffic can keep it there.
Second, AI companies have to keep showing cash. Palantir did. Microsoft did. Amazon did enough. Meta and Apple showed the other side of the bill.
The market is separating AI winners by ledger.
Software with cash gets paid. Hardware with margin pressure gets tested. Cloud with backlog gets paid. Capex without free cash flow gets marked down.
The Ledger Test
The buildout can rally again. But it has to fund itself.
The close answered the morning with a stronger bid.
Palantir printed the cash. Oil printed the relief. The Dow printed a record.
What is priced: WTI near $76, Hormuz deal hope, Palantir as an AI cash-flow winner, and September Fed odds back near a coin flip.
What is not priced: a Hormuz deal that fails, oil bouncing back above $85, factory hiring hardening the Fed’s labor read, or Polymarket getting a $20 billion price before the rulebook clears.
The market bought the same buildout again.
This time, it bought the ledger with cash.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
